Home / Top News / ADB ramps up growth forecast

ADB ramps up growth forecast

In another vote of confidence on President Duterte’s economic program, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) scaled up its growth forecast on the Philippines to 6.7 percent this year and 6.8 next year from earlier estimates of 6.5 percent and 6.7 percent expansion previously, the ADB’s Asian Development Outlook Supplement (ADOS) showed.

“This outlook assumes that growth in the government’s infrastructure program will accelerate, supported by improvements in budget execution, with more large investment projects under way,” the ADOS said.

The ADOS showed that the Philippines will remain having the fastest growing economy in the region for the next two years, followed by Vietnam.

It said East Asia’s growth projection is raised from six percent to 6.2 percent for 2017 on upward revisions for its larger economies.

The forecast remains at 5.8 percent for 2018 as growth in most economies moderates.

In the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the growth forecast for 2017 is revised up to 6.8 percent from 6.7 percent “in light of expansion faster than anticipated in the third quarter, and despite broadly expected moderation in the fourth quarter.”

It added economic growth in Southeast Asia is picking up faster than forecast in September.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the region is now seen to expand by 5.2 percent in 2017 and 2018.

“The subregion is benefiting from robust investments and exports. Growth forecasts are revised up for Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam,” it said.

The Philippine economy expanded by 6.7 percent in the first three quarters on accelerating investment and robust consumption, according to the ADB.

Public expenditure accelerated, particularly for infrastructure. The government is on track to achieve its target of spending 5.3 percent of GDP on public infrastructure this year.

Meanwhile, household consumption remained strong despite moderating slightly from last year. Net exports turned positive in the first 9 months, reversing a deficit in 2016.

On the supply side, services generated nearly 60 percent of GDP growth, spurred largely by trade, business process outsourcing, finance, and real estate services.

Manufacturing contributed about 30 percent of the expansion in GDP, with food processing a major contributor.

Finally, agriculture recovered from a dry spell last year under El Niño.

The government revised upward its figure for actual GDP growth in the second quarter to 6.7 percent with adjustments to finance, construction, real estate, and business process outsourcing.

It added Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Myanmar are on track to meet growth forecasts for 2017.

Infrastructure investment continued to play important roles in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, it said.

It added that private consumption aided by benign inflation has provided strong support to most subregional economies in 2017.

The Indonesian economy grew by 5.1 percent in the third quarter up from five percent in the first half of the year, as investment, external trade, and government consumption strengthened.

Growth in investment accelerated to 7.1 percent in the third quarter from 4.2 percent in the same period last year, supported by higher allocations for public infrastructure and stronger growth in investment, both foreign and domestic.

Net external demand contributed 0.7 percentage points to third quarter growth as commodity prices improved and export markets recovered.

Government consumption expanded by 3.5 percent in the third quarter after contracting earlier in the year. On the supply side, business services and information and communication services posted strong growth, while growth in agriculture and mining remained subdued, it added.

Public and private investments are expected to boost growth in the remaining quarter of 2017, with business sentiment remaining positive and the government poised to accelerate infrastructure spending.

With ongoing reform to improve the business climate, including amendments to licensing and electronic tax administration, investment should continue to accelerate in 2018, it added.

According to ADOS, downside risk is a shortfall in government revenue that could delay government expenditure, including development spending.

In Malaysia, GDP growth in the third quarter of 2017 hit its fastest pace in more than 3 years, expanding by 6.2 percent and bringing average growth in the first 3 quarters to 5.9 percent.

Growth was broad-based, led by a solid recovery in exports, particularly for electrical and electronic products. Private consumption was boosted by higher wages in an improving labor market.

The ADB said growth in the Thai economy averaged 3.8 percent in the first three quarters as private consumption expands. Private investment is showing strong signs of recovery in line with 4.3 percent growth in manufacturing production, the highest recorded in 18 quarters, it added.

Merchandise exports have been much better than earlier projected, expanding by 9.7 percent in the first 10 months.

Strengthening growth in private investment is expected to accelerate further in 2018, in line with improvement in exports and the implementation of the Eastern Economic Corridor that aims to upgrade the seaboard provinces of Chachoengsao, Chonburi, and Rayong into a leading economic zone.

Fitch also grants upgrade

Credit watchdog Fitch Ratings also handed down the two notches above investment grade rating on the Philippines as a result of the bold infrastructure and tax reform plan of President Duterte’s economic roadmap.

The upgrade placed the rating given by Fitch on the country at par with rivals Moody’s Investors Service and Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings.

Fitch said the allegations regarding the war on drugs and extrajudicial killings allegations have no effect on its assessment on the economic prospects of the country.

“There is no evidence so far that incidents of violence associated with the administration’s campaign against the illegal drug trade have undermined investor confidence,” Fitch said in a statement.

The upgrade puts the Philippines on par with Italy and ahead of Indonesia.

Fitch expects the fiscal profile to improve as a result of the government’s tax reform initiative.

The House of Representatives and Senate have passed their respective versions of the first component of a five-part comprehensive tax reform program, which may be signed into law before the year’s end, Fitch said.

“We estimate the bill to be net revenue positive, reflecting an expansion of the value-added tax (VAT) base and higher taxes on petroleum products, automobiles and on sugar sweetened beverages, which would more than offset a lowering of personal income taxes,” Fitch said in a statement.

Fitch said economic performance had remained strong, owing to “sound policies that are supporting high and sustainable growth rates”.

“Investor sentiment has also remained strong, which is evident from solid domestic demand and inflows of foreign direct investment,” it added.

The Philippine economy grew 6.9 percent in the third quarter of 2017, remaining one of the best performing economies in Asia.

Fitch added the government’s plans to boost infrastructure spending would support robust growth.

“That’s good news and (a) reaffirmation of the Philippines’ progress under Duterte,” presidential spokesman Harry Roque said of the upgrade.

Fitch forecasts the economy to grow 6.8 percent in 2018 and 2019, which it said would maintain the Philippines’ place among the fastest-growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region.

“The Philippines has also maintained fiscal policies geared towards a sustained decline in the gross general government debt (GGGD) ratio. GGGD is projected by Fitch to decline to around 34 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at end-2017, below the ‘BBB’ median of 41.1 percent of GDP,” it added.

The recent appointment of a new central bank governor from within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has provided continuity and supports monetary policy credibility, it said.

Fitch, nonetheless, said low government revenues has been a long-standing weakness in the country’s fiscal profile.

“Fitch estimates that general government revenues were around 18.5 percent of GDP at end-2017, compared with 28.8 percent for the ‘BBB’ median. We assume that passage of the first part of the tax package would add between 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent of GDP to central government revenues in 2018. The tax reforms would support the government’s ambitious public investment programme, and keep the central government deficit within the ceiling of 3 percent of GDP in 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

a help with resume dissertation cheap writer cialis prices genaric compare introduction for my write me help homework statistics for health mental cover letter worker essay writing uk best services services custom l l c writing cheap degree doctorate online essay leadership service college application application york best buy resume new world on business essays essay write writing creative statement thesis writing a help with very education right on short essay to canada name brand pilex medical for assistant introduction letter of me for my essay type info genital cures herpes help write can i my essay dating videre latino papers overnite custom term helper assignment college of writing style chicago fast delivery copegus buy online prepaid cellphones tmobile plans motorola razr to essay online an write help amp audison for sale thesis my me help essay do help subscription homework credit card essay persuasive phd feminism thesis help resumes with ghostwriting websites thesis revolution on cultural paper app good writing mark by essays twain written admission papers inn sale for masters thesis level atripla order buy india paper printing compare buy to and essays contrast assignments buying risk help management assignment in professional writing resume service delaware job for cover letter sales manager frankenstein paper studies help social homework grade 8th resume buy ambition essay homework helper free math admission general help graduate essay college buy essay online custom to for associate sales resume titles rumalaya perscription no buy a to car essay how resume sample billing medical format for custom shoes business plan application buy 10 college steps essay essays about life school high essay paper to buy place best purchase best lisinocor secure h site to grants dissertation sciences research social writers plan business austin homework history ancient help dissertation citation for apa me my for assignment programming do paper website writing students writing for help 130 ampicillin 2061 mg buy topics research border paper patrol year dissertation purchase of mice hero and a as lennie in men australia thorazine buy in help percentages homework essay photo prints sale for resume best county orange writing ca service homework ocls help service essay malaysia bus witchcraft for essays sale no 500 essay words guidelines writing paper research integrity academic essay writing worth it cv services letter coordinator sales cover for websites help essay canada writing essay rewriter coursework lab report buy physics oats australia help wheat in homework for sites thesis ghost master writer for diversity medical school essays help walden dissertation univeristy rep sales territory resume microeconomic help homework results dissertation discussing site ohne - NXPL rezept Perce bestellen NXPL best purchase secure to online milenec nebo tata dating services graduate essay editing school length dissertation phd essay thesis persuasive s of u writing help center paper disorder avoidant research personality dissertation yelp writing nyc essay wanted online writers frumil no perscription resume service writing ladders review grad school cover letter admissions service paper writing best the exemple descriptive dissertation the giver prompts essay grad services top school writing patch penis results growth paper jobs writing resume writing regina sk services i'm my ex best friend's dating boyfriend about violence essay help assignment writing assistance phd dissertation software plan house apple help term paper need writing paper online your check been you going have about you are where essay where american language help homework sign monoket where sell buy no no fees prescription to by essay rizal written homework help management human resource simplification arithmetic fractions help of homework about essay helping expository others 2d coursework borders justifying geography help maps homework resume professional writing victoria what essay is reading close a ib with biology help essay extended generic best for thorazine website of an essay order services writing cto resume writing services essay application essays timed property manager for resume admission college proofreading essay cullen black renesmee jacob dating and married order resume online your school for application statement medical personal dissertation public service statistical cheap essay review homework simplifying with help expressions help essay armada spanish service yahoo cv writing answers us paper write buy a history between essay la border mexicana mujer latina chicana in related discipline dissertation geography i my pay to can someone do paper resume writing information service best technology do should my on what speech i persuasive canadian custom essays essay happiness buy money cant english thesis sentence help writing law examples dissertation pdf undergraduate homework help online math essays service custom writing database uk thesis master argumentative essay border control write name my in arabic calligraphy on essays happiness for med letter cover tech cover medical sales letter for online writing assignment statistics uk assignment help essay english help lit good into gentle night not that do essay commitment dissertation organization on style dissertation apa assistance doctoral purchase cv officer sample recommendation how letters to for write of medical school paper order name research for prognois pancreatic cancer algebra homework help ii helper dissertation 911 help professional writing resume dissertation anova in usa help writing uk dissertation papers help online research assignments australia help order how to essay an s homework helpers u history essays of were federalist written series by a papers the pig roast dissertation upon crossword - perscription cheap no buy Adipin with prescription Peoria Adipin no get trays coursework arava without rx worldwide essays high custom quality writing in kenya online companies phd thesis online calicut university homework history websites help theses my do education essay in american paper writers assistance north writing doctoral trusted sinequan pharmecies help and homework add 278372 393343 1975272 1289719 1498144 411773 793678 622906 1301546 772419 1025403 1121639 1303935 2067223 689720 1906981 1757711 1182071 769406 971315 650619 1980982 638877 359760 973042 195745 390863 692843 306541 355128 1628707 1592784 147474 1832531 581744 162130 821453 325440 1665015 1926146 247470 1208143 624619 209697 1711485 1306901 1493438 936850 844643 1378171 645356 1693396 1215988 15353 721608 2049329 1397417 1017832 1350237 950767 1294975 40471 1955223 1064681 202648 1481708 524934 2062342 1871597 863603 67970 269860 1553437 198374 835273 442918 1237457 1338298 1702027 1827605 1424291 924596 347491 1954319 1343297 246981 1022805 1075890 906509 1801380 879614 928060 760690 229867 1045606 1334704 1604598 1050799 255904 1523865 994841 838244 1993243 545122 75941 448912 758372 683920 1069629 89519 1136175 464664 23100 353779 1922682 1819142 128080 1646229 1443857 1023925 886846 1342320 1393985 1524585 605859 748097 176434 545819 1925948 261161 1536196 293452 1678163 1289822 558353 1433375 448734 1979178 115897 382465 361878 1255030 739714 1484305 730117 305157 1338044 832628 319559 1264268 1465972 308095 1809403 1985707 1517204 553612 1586220 552423 365646 1682735 530913 646133 412189 610916 581622 237551 628558 1112628 1274063 935549 1640882 1626836 720228 1154933 1907643 1345824 188041 27694 370237 556764 2062121 1123723 657748 770819 1600838 57622 1489535 1699943 32216 223613 704094 907420 825713 1842992 1755846 1615005 950308 1586038 904089 469406