P370-B Metro subway by 2022

If plans don’t miscarry, the country will inaugurate its first subway network by not later than 2022, a gargantuan P370-billion project that would interconnect the major business centers of Metro Manila and help ease crippling urban vehicular congestion.

The project won Cabinet-level approval by the National Economic Development Authority (Neda)-Investment Coordinating Committee (ICC) last January 15; it is easily the most expensive offering under the Aquino administration’s public-private partnership program.

Since subways are more expensive to build than elevated rails, the major undertaking might need the collaboration of all major Philippine property developers to realize. Among those that initially indicated interest in the project were Malaysia’s MTD Capital Bhd. and the diversified Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (MPIC).

The subway project is part of the “Metro Manila Transportation Dream Plan” that the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) drafted following a comprehensive study to solve the worsening traffic problem in Metro Manila and suburbs.

The Jica study explores, among other things, the viability of an underground mass-transit system for Metro Manila, given the densification of urban activities, the limits to road buildings, and the positive prospects on funding.

“The time may have come to address the growing commuting requirements of major central business districts (CBDs such as Bay Area, Makati, BGC, Ortigas, North Triangle, FTI, Alabang) with an underground mass transit solution for a large conurbation like Metro Manila,” the study said.

The government described the subway system as a necessity in the areas it would service.

The proposed first subway, called Makati-Pasay-Taguig Mass Transit System Loop, is envisioned to run from Market Market and St. Luke’s Hospital at the Bonifacio Global City to the Edsa-MRT stations on Gil Puyat and Ayala all the way to Ayala Triangle, the Makati Post Office and the PNR station on Buendia, then to the LRT-1 station on Gil Puyat and Taft. It would cross Roxas Boulevard and extend to the World Trade Center and SM Mall of Asia, then back to the Edsa-MRT station on Taft.

The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) decided on utilizing the 26th Street in Bonifacio Global City as terminal and would put the stations at Market-Market, McKinley Parkway, 5th Avenue, Ayala/Edsa, Ayala Triangle, Makati Post Office, PNR Buendia, Buendia/Taft Avenue, World Trade Center, Mall of Asia, and Edsa/Taft Ave.

The project timetable appears optimistic, compared to similar major projects in the region like the Calcutta subway or Kolkata Metro, which took 15 years from planning to start commercial operations.

The cost of the Metro project is about 14 percent of this year’s P2.6-trillion budget. It’s also bigger than the biggest departmental budget, education at P341 billion. Under the PPP, it is the private sector that would shoulder the cost.

The Jica-drafted plan urged the government, with its scarce resources, to give priority to infrastructure development and head off a traffic crisis in Metro Manila by 2030.

The Jica’s comprehensive study is called the “Roadmap for transport infrastructure development for Metro Manila and Its surrounding areas.” Among other highlights, it contains a short-term program on accelerating infrastructure development dictated by practicality and is “doable in the next three years.”

The Neda Board that President Aquino heads approved the study for adoption by the government.

The study said that in Metro Manila, traffic volume already exceeds road capacities in most of the urban road sections and congestion is felt throughout the day, specifically from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.

“If nothing is done, the situation in 2030 will become a nightmare. All roads will be saturated. The negative impact on economic, social, and environmental aspects will be so large deterring the function and livability of Metro Manila,” it said.

Jica estimated that the daily traffic gridlock costs the economy P2.4 billion a day. It is forecast to grow to P6 billion a day by 2030, if the situation does not change.

“The increase in transport cost in BRLC (Batangas, Rizal, Laguna and Cavite) is more significant because of relatively poor provision of transport infrastructure,” it added.

The study noted that traffic authorities have also identified the Manila ports as a source of traffic congestion but a total phase-out of the Manila ports is not tenable now because the total capacity in the alternate ports of Batangas and Subic is insufficient to handle all the container traffic.

“In addition, it would have a negative impact on the logistic cost to export of the country,” it added.

South Harbor, in contrast, is operating at an average of 107.5 percent of capacity or 914,521 TEU for a capacity of 850,000 TEU, the study showed.

The study said the solution to the Metro traffic problem in lies in the building of about 136 kilometers of new at-grade roads plus 426 kilometers of inter-city expressways and 78 kilometers of urban expressways from 2016 to 2030.

It said for Metro Manila, the backlogs include the missing links of C2, C3, C4 and C5 as well as building the flyovers and interchanges, which the study said should be completed before 2016.

It listed the key road projects as the C6 Extension Flood Control Dike Expressway as a co-product of the Laguna flood-protection program, the port-access improvements on the back of committed projects such as Segment 10 of the North Luzon Expressway (Nlex), Link Expressway and the Skyway 3; and the C5 to Food Terminal Inc. (FTI) Link on the redevelopment of FTI.

Luis Leoncio