The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
By Lynn Elber and Frazier Moore / The Associated Press
Emmy will dispense her favors on Sunday night (Monday morning in Manila), when the 67th Primetime Emmy Awards airs at 8 p.m. (New York time)
In the meantime, television’s biggest guessing game moves into high gear, with its players including two sure-of-themselves Associated Press television critics.
Will Modern Family continue its best-comedy streak? They say: Yes and no.
Will Mad Men finish its run by picking up another best-drama statuette? They say: Maybe, maybe not.
Now here’s the list of confident, yet often clashing forecasts from those fearless prophets for seven major Emmy races:
Drama series
Lynn Elber. Should win: Mad Men. It ended as intelligently as it began, so true to its brand of storytelling that even Coke would be envious. Will win: Game of Thrones. The superbly produced saga is that rare bird, a fantasy with sufficient heft to gain Emmy respect.
Frazier Moore. Should win: The Americans. It’s downright un-American that it has been overlooked again. Will win: Mad Men. This was a grand finale season for the series that, along with The Sopranos, certified a golden renaissance in drama on television.
Comedy series
Elber. Should win: Transparent. Riding a wave of social change isn’t the trick. Making art of it, with heart, is what should make this a winner. Will win: Veep. The political winds are at its back after four solid seasons on the campaign trail, and Emmy voters will reward consistency.
Moore. Should win: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Fresh, funny and wickedly uplifting. What a welcome treat! Will win: Modern Family. This has become such a habit with Emmy judges that they’re in danger of contracting Repetitive Stress Syndrome.
Actor in a drama series
Elber. Should win: Jon Hamm, Mad Men. Did we ever not believe he was Don Draper, from the highs to the lows? Don’t hate him because he’s matinee-idol handsome, Emmy voters. Will win: Hamm. Spoiler Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad is gone, removing the only legit reason Emmy voters had to bypass Hamm’s work.
Moore. Should win: Hamm. He should win, even if his competition this year weren’t largely unimpressive. Will win: Hamm. Emmy won’t squander its last chance to correct this glaring sin of omission.
Actress in a drama series
Elber. Should win: Taraji P. Henson, Empire. Her virtuoso acting turn feeds the show’s soap-opera spirit without making a cartoon Cookie. Will win: Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder. The two-time Oscar nominee (to Henson’s one) is a gift to TV, and Emmy will show its gratitude for her take-no-prisoners performance.
Moore. Should win: Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black. A crowd by herself in so many roles on this supernatural clone-fest she’s lost count of them all, Maslany supersizes the accomplishment of acting. Will win: Henson. An exciting performance on the series that proved that, even in an age when cable and streaming video routinely steal the show, a broadcast network can still launch an empire.
Actor in a comedy series
Elber. Should win: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent. His unerringly thoughtful performance and the zeitgeist are both on his side. Will win: Tambor. A respected journeyman actor gets the starring role he deserves and the acclaim his performance demands.
Moore. Should win: Tambor. Much more than comic, Tambor’s nuanced performance as a man’s late-in-life transition into a woman is not only perfect, but perfect for this moment. Will win: Tambor. Why not? Nominated but never awarded for past classic characters, he has outdone himself here and he will be recognized for it.
Actress in a comedy series
Elber. Should win: Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie. Her sly performance both grounds and elevates the high-concept comedy. Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. An Emmy favorite (and deservedly so) from Seinfeld to The New Adventures of Old Christine to Veep, happy habits are hard to break.
Moore. Should win: Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer. An arresting, exciting and original comedy voice everyone was waiting for without even realizing. Will win: Louis-Dreyfus. Good at what she does, and comfortably familiar doing it, she’ll be the comfortable choice for the fourth time in a row.
Limited series
Elber. Should win: American Crime. An unsparing dissection of crime and punishment, and widely available on a broadcast network—ABC—not on premium cable. A winner on both counts. Will win: Olive Kitteridge. The adaptation of Elizabeth Strout’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel honored its pedigree, and Emmy voters appreciate breeding.
Moore. Should win: American Crime. It was ambitious, heartbreaking and illuminating. But a win for the splendid Olive Kitteridge, Wolf Hall or The Honorable Woman would do Emmy just as proud. Will win: American Horror Story: Freak Show. Its rival series—all superior, but not nearly so high-profile—will cancel one another out, clinching a win for this popular, much-buzzed-out freak show.
The 67th Primetime Emmy Awards will be shown on the Lifestyle Network cable channel (SkyCable and Destiny channel 52) at 8 a.m. on September 21.