The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
Prospects for the Philippine economy continue to be on the bleak side.
This is according to economists from Maybank, who see that the country’s economic growth will continue its trajectory of undershooting the government’s targets until next year, 2027.
They said the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) may have grown by 4.8% in 2025, before picking up slightly to 4.9% in 2026. This was down from their earlier estimates of 5.6% and 5.8%, respectively.
If realized, these will fall short of the government’s targets of 5.5%-6.5% for 2025 and 5%-6% for 2026.
“So, we did some quantification on the… impact of the flood control (issue on the Philippine economy). Based on the quantification, we actually revised our GDP growth for the Philippines to 4.8% in 2025 and to 4.9% in 2026,” the bank’s senior economist said.
The flood control corruption scandal weakened consumer and investor sentiment as well as slowed government spending and household consumption, driving GDP growth to an over four-year low of 4% in the third quarter. As of end-September, GDP growth stood at 5%.
However, Maybank analysts said the lower end of this year’s target is still attainable if private consumption, which accounts for about 43% of GDP, will pick up.
They said the government’s renewed push for reforms and catch-up plans, if materialized, could provide some boost for domestic demand and investment climate in the near term.