Ambition is not immunity

If Vice President Sara Duterte believes that floating her presidential ambition will intimidate those weighing impeachment complaints against her, she may be overestimating the power of political theater. A declaration of intent to run in 2028 might rattle allies and fence-sitters in the House of Representatives, but it carries no weight in The Hague, where judges of the International Criminal Court are tasked with trying her father for crimes against humanity.

Courts are not swayed by campaign slogans. They are moved by evidence. And the ICC proceedings against former President Rodrigo Duterte threaten to reopen, in meticulous detail, the grim chapters of the drug war. 

Each affidavit, each testimony, each speech entered into the record revives public memory of a campaign that left thousands dead. However fervently supporters deny the trail of bodies, the documentation exists — in police reports, media archives and grieving households.

The political implications for 2028 are unavoidable. A prolonged trial means sustained global attention. It means headlines that revisit allegations of systematic killings. For voters who may have been lulled by time or distracted by new controversies, the ICC process serves as a stark reminder. Nostalgia is harder to sustain when confronted with courtroom evidence.

If the Vice President cannot strong-arm those processing her impeachment complaint, critics warn of a more cynical fallback: transactional politics. The Philippines has long struggled with the corrosive influence of patronage. But bribery would only deepen public distrust. Intimidation and inducement are poor substitutes for accountability.

There is also the uncomfortable calculus of mortality. Should the elder Duterte die during the ICC trial, sympathy could swell and consolidate support around his daughter. Yet even death would not erase the evidentiary record. Court transcripts, witness testimonies, and documented policies would remain. History is not so easily buried.

Meanwhile, the myth of inevitability — that Sara Duterte is unbeatable in 2028 — has been carefully cultivated. Early polling, regional machinery in Davao, and the consolidation of family backing all feed this narrative. But inevitability dissolves under scrutiny. The Vice President has yet to squarely address allegations surrounding millions of pesos in confidential and intelligence funds used during her tenure as Vice President and as head of the education department. Those questions will not disappear simply because a presidential bid is declared early.

Ambition is not immunity. If Sara Duterte seeks the nation’s highest office, she must confront both the legacy of the drug war and the unresolved issues of governance under her own watch. Sweeping them under the rug is not leadership; it is evasion.