SC ruling favorable to Poe to seal coffin of Roxas’s bid

If speculations prove correct, the Supreme Court (SC) is set to decide on the fate of the petition to disqualify Sen. Grace Poe from her bid for the presidency in the May 2016 elections.

Most analysts believe the pendulum could swing either way.

At this point, no matter which way that proverbial pendulum swings, the candidate who stands to suffer most would be Palace bet and former Interior a Secretary Mar Roxas.

We explain.

Should the SC allow Poe to run, her supporters who may have temporarily “migrated” to either the Binay or Duterte camps would most likely return to the fold.

Should the SC rule that Poe is not qualified to run for the presidency, Poe sup­porters, who have remained loyal despite the uncertain­ty of her candidacy’s fate, would most likely migrate to either the Binay or the Duterte camp.

Or, they would simply stay away from the electoral exercise or spoil their bal­lots by still ticking the name of their disqualified candi­date.

Given how she fared in the surveys, a favorable SC ruling should cement a Poe win.

According to news re­ports last Friday, Poe and Vice President Jejomar Binay were “statistically tied” in the latest Pulse Asia presidential preference poll, with the former getting the nod of 26 percent, and the latter chosen by 25 percent of the 1,800 respondents. The poll was conducted from Feb. 15 to 20.

The senator and the Vice President were close­ly followed by Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and Roxas, who both got 21 percent. Sen. Miriam De­fensor-Santiago was in last place with 3 percent.

On the other hand, an unfavorable ruling could further stretch the gap Binay has over Roxas.

In the unfavorable-rul­ing scenario, it is highly improbable that Poe vot­ers would migrate to Rox­as. The Poe vote is seen to be a vote against the status quo—a rejection of what that slogan matuwid na daan (straight path) purports to be.

Logic states that if Poe herself had some belief on the authenticity of that slo­gan, she could have agreed to run as Roxas’s vice pres­idential running mate. She did not.

In the favorable-ruling scenario, it is highly prob­able that a good number of Roxas votes could move over to Poe. Reason: Roxas voters believe that charac­ter of the candidate must be the primary consider­ation and that the current administration’s gains must be sustained in the next six years.

Poe meets both require­ments. Add to that the aura of an ability to win, which Roxas may have so far dis­mally failed to show.

An SC ruling favorable to Poe could be the last nail that would seal the coffin of Roxas’s bid. Such rul­ing would reopen the fau­cet of valuable campaign donations. It could trigger a bandwagon. It could set Poe miles ahead of the rest of the pack. It could define Poe as the candidate to beat —the candidate most likely to win.

It is possible that the Palace would not worry over such a development.

Poe does not appear to be predisposed to demolish the present administration’s gains. She would not vilify PNoy in the way the latter did to Gloria Macapagal-Ar­royo and the late strongman Ferdinand Marcos.

It is unlikely that Poe would be interested in en­couraging a deluge of law­suits against the incumbent president once the latter leaves office.

We can only commis­erate with Roxas. We sup­port the view that he is both competent and a man of integrity. His fault is that he lacked what it takes to win the presidency and that he gifted himself with groups and advisers who miserably failed to fill that vital gap.

We believe Roxas would make a good President. He enjoys the advantage of a distinguished political lin­eage and of an outstanding world-class education.

His temper and aristo­cratic demeanor, the coun­try could have lived with.

He could have come closer to the presidency if he had chosen people who understood what the com­mon people feel, want and aspire for.

Our sense is that the SC will issue a ruling favorable to Poe’s candidacy.

The Poe steamroller is set to shift to higher gear.