Don’t fold — Use geopolitical leverage vs. US tariffs

With Malacañang issuing a cautious, pre-emptive statement on the potential re-implementation of US tariffs under the Trump administration, the writing on the wall is clear: the Philippines is bracing for economic headwinds it feels powerless to resist.

Instead of dressing up this passivity in diplomatic language to soothe a jittery business community, it’s time our leaders recognize the strategic advantage they are sitting on—and use it.

The Philippines is not just another exporter facing tariff threats. It occupies a geographically critical position in the Indo-Pacific, a region central to global trade routes and military strategy. As China continues to assert itself aggressively in the West Philippine Sea, the Philippines’ relevance to US strategic interests is more valuable than ever. Yet, the government seems too timid to leverage this position.

Behind the scenes, there is fear in Malacañang that Donald Trump will be punitive if the Philippines dares to push back. Philippine officials are mindful of how Trump dealt with China with sweeping tariffs and unpredictable trade barriers. The worry is that defiance might invite retaliation. But submission has its price, too.

Instead of simply absorbing the blow of higher tariffs, the Philippines should put its cards on the table. It can offer strategic access to seaports and airports for American military logistics and presence in exchange for preferential trade arrangements. The US needs forward positions in Southeast Asia to counter China. This is a bargaining chip, not a footnote. Let’s stop treating it as a risk and start recognizing it as a resource.

To be clear, an increase in US tariffs will hurt the Philippines. Already, local businesses are struggling under the weight of rising fuel prices, a volatile peso, increasing cost of raw materials, surging wages and heavy local taxation. The threat of higher tariffs on key exports—electronics, garments, agricultural products—could force firms to lay off workers, downscale operations, or even close down entirely.

And unlike larger economies like Canada or China, the Philippines has no retaliatory leverage. It cannot threaten counter-tariffs, nor can it easily pivot to other markets. The US remains a top trade partner and a critical buyer in several Philippine industries. That makes this country vulnerable, but not without options.

Other nations are fighting back. Canada has vowed retaliation. China is recalibrating its supply chains and doubling down on trade alliances. Even smaller nations are exploring bilateral alternatives. The Philippines seems stuck in a reactive stance—hoping, not negotiating; conceding, not asserting.

Malacañang’s economic team knows the stakes. Any sign of capitulation will not just damage trade relationships; it will send a dangerous message to investors and international partners—that the Philippines is incapable of standing up for its economic interests. Worse, it will shake public confidence in the Marcos administration’s ability to shield the economy from external shocks.

The challenge now is not simply to prepare for tariffs, but to respond with strategy, not submission. It is time to have a real diplomatic conversation with Washington—not just about trade, but about military access, regional stability, and the Philippines’ pivotal role in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

This is not about antagonizing Trump or the US. It’s about ensuring that Philippine interests are not sacrificed at the altar of foreign politics. It’s about demanding fair treatment not through bravado, but through intelligent, calculated diplomacy.

We have leverage. Let’s use it—before it’s too late.