60-day import ban to pressure rice prices

The  declaration by the President of a rice import ban, beginning September 1, would put heavy pressure on rice prices even with the increased local rice output.

The US Department of Agriculture said the Philippines imported over 750,000 metric tons from mid-September to mid November in the last two years and that import demand during the import ban is pegged at the same level this year.

“While domestic rice production in the first half of 2025 increased by over 6 percent compared to last year, this growth may not fully offset the anticipated demand during the import ban,” 

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that palay output in January to June grew by 6.41 percent to a record 9.077 million metric tons (MMT) from the 8.53 MMT posted in the same period last year.

The last time palay production breached the 9-MMT mark in the first half of the year was in 2023, when it reached 9.026 MMT.

“Based on estimated consumption and 2025 [second] semester production, FAS Manila estimates import demand during the period of the temporary ban at similar levels to the last two mar to 19.09 million metric tons (MMT) last year, from a record-high 20.06 MMT recorded in 2023 due to El Niño. 

Because of the supply shortfall caused by the drought, the country’s rice imports reached an all-time high of 4.8 MMT last year.