Bongbong’s big gamble in Washington

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s confirmed visit to the United States on July 20-22, 2025, comes at a politically charged time — with high economic stakes. The trip, which may include his first official meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, places the Philippine leader in a delicate position: whether to confront the controversial 20% tariffs recently imposed by the U.S. on select Philippine exports or risk missing a rare, if risky, diplomatic opportunity.

The 20% tariff, which has alarmed Filipino business leaders, threatens to erode the competitiveness of Philippine goods in the U.S. market. The economic impact could be significant, particularly in sectors like agriculture, electronics and garments. Business groups have already urged Malacañang to seek relief or renegotiation of the tariff scheme — an outcome that, if achieved, could greatly boost President Marcos’ political standing just days before his State of the Nation Address (SONA).

However, any negotiation on U.S. soil — especially under President Trump — is a dangerous balancing act. Trump has a well-documented history of using tariffs not just as an economic tool, but as a form of political theater. His goal is often not just to win concessions, but to display dominance. In past encounters, Trump has publicly humiliated leaders who appeared vulnerable or too eager, from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré. If Bongbong isn’t careful, he could join their ranks.

The optics of the meeting will matter as much as the outcomes. A Marcos-Trump face-to-face — particularly if it takes place within the symbolic halls of the White House — will offer a revealing moment in Bongbong’s presidency. Will he press for economic justice and defend Filipino interests with dignity? Or will he fall into the trap Trump often sets: a high-pressure game where heads of state are pushed to grovel in hopes of leniency?

It’s important to note that major economic powers like the European Union, China and Canada have stood firm against Trump’s tariff aggression. These countries resisted, retaliated or walked away from uneven deals. 

In contrast, Trump’s administration has turned to smaller, less confrontational nations where he can extract swift political wins. The Philippines, under its current leadership, now risks being treated as one of those easy targets.

Yet doing nothing may be just as costly. Should Marcos skip the opportunity to raise the tariff issue directly with Trump, it would be seen as a missed chance to defend Filipino industries and workers on the world stage. Despite three previous U.S. visits during his presidency, this would be his first encounter with Trump—a man who demands deference but respects strength. Silence or avoidance would likely embolden Trump to escalate trade pressure on the Philippines, interpreting Marcos’ inaction as weakness.

What makes this situation particularly precarious is that it is not just about economics—it is about leadership under fire. The stakes go beyond securing trade relief. This is a test of whether President Marcos can protect national interest without being reduced to a supplicant. 

Zelensky and Traoré, though subjected to Trump’s pressure tactics, earned global respect for standing their ground. How Marcos behaves in that crucible will reveal his political mettle to both domestic and international audiences.

With the SONA just around the corner, the outcome of this visit — whether triumphant or humiliating — will weigh heavily on the narrative Marcos brings home. A successful negotiation could provide a political windfall. A failure, especially a public one, could severely undercut his credibility at home.

President Marcos is facing a high-stakes diplomatic poker game in Washington. Whether he wins or folds under pressure, the gamble he takes will define more than just the outcome of a trade dispute. It will define his stature as a leader on the global stage.