Marcos-Duterte reconciliation or power struggle in disguise?

As the 20th Congress prepares to convene, a high-stakes political chess match is unfolding between two of the country’s most influential political dynasties: the Marcoses and the Dutertes. 

With Vice President Sara Duterte reportedly lobbying for her brother, Davao City Rep. Paolo Duterte, to run for House Speaker, the message is clear—the Dutertes are not ready to concede control of the legislative branch. But critics view this as a sign of desperation, a last-ditch effort to retain influence amid signs their grip on power is slipping.

Over in the Senate, where five pro-Duterte senators secured seats in the last election, the race for the Senate presidency is similarly fraught. Chiz Escudero currently holds the post, but he is not considered a Duterte loyalist. That a pro-Duterte candidate is not automatically the frontrunner is telling: it signals that Duterte influence, while still significant, is no longer absolute. The era of dominance they once enjoyed may be drawing to a close.

Against this backdrop, President Bongbong Marcos’ statement that he is open to reconciling with the Duterte family raises eyebrows. His tone suggests diplomacy, but the political realities make such reconciliation easier said than done. The wounds run deep—most notably the efforts to politically sideline Sara Duterte and damage her viability for a presidential bid in 2028. These moves have not been forgotten, especially by the Duterte camp, who view them as deliberate and calculated assaults on their political future.

The elephant in the room is the impending Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Duterte. Despite the House Quad hearings reportedly compiling “tons of evidence,” the truth is the Senate’s decision will not solely hinge on facts. It will be a numbers game—plain and simple. If the Duterte bloc holds enough sway in the Senate, Sara might survive the trial. If not, it could be the final blow to her 2028 aspirations.

That trial is a litmus test for the balance of power. It will reveal whether the Duterte name still commands loyalty within the Senate or if the Marcos administration has successfully consolidated its influence. For Malacañang, the outcome has broader implications: the new composition of both Houses will determine how swiftly or successfully the administration’s legislative priorities move forward.

Ultimately, talk of reconciliation may serve more as political theater than a genuine peace offering. The Marcos camp wants to ensure smooth legislative sailing; the Dutertes want to remain politically relevant. But any truce would require more than public statements—it would demand a fundamental shift in how both families view power-sharing. At present, both appear more interested in securing dominance than making peace.

Whether this ends in reconciliation or all-out political warfare remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the battle for Congress is about far more than leadership—it’s about the future of two dynasties and who will lead the nation next.