ADB remains upbeat on Philippine economy

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) remains upbeat about the Philippines’ economic prospects, saying the country will stay resilient amid a challenging global environment.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 report released last week, the ADB projected the Philippine economy to grow by 5.6 percent this year and slightly quicken to 5.7 percent in 2026. While the 2026 forecast was trimmed from an earlier 5.8 percent estimate, the multilateral lender said the Philippines will remain a “bright spot in Southeast Asia,” posting the second-highest GDP growth in the region.

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries said. “Though these uncertainties pose increased risks, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion.”

According to the ADB, robust domestic demand, steady public infrastructure spending, and low inflation will continue to drive growth. The services and industry sectors—which together account for the bulk of the country’s output—will remain key growth engines, with trade, transportation, and professional services leading the way.

Inflation is expected to remain manageable, averaging 1.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026, supported by easing global commodity prices. However, the ADB cautioned that adverse weather events and climate shocks could push prices upward.

The Bank also warned of possible downside risks from global uncertainties, including policy shifts, trade barriers, and slowing growth in major economies.

Despite these headwinds, the ADB said the Philippines’ sound macroeconomic fundamentals and resilient domestic market will keep it among Southeast Asia’s strongest performers.