The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
By Rose de la Cruz
With the winnability of Donald Trump in the nearing US elections and his unpredictable foreign policy that analysts say is more transactional rather than rules-based, Philippine analysts are asking the Marcos administration to prepare for such an uncertainty,
The Philippines must temper its security expectations from the United States and focus on strengthening ties with Asian nations on par with China’s might, amid the unpredictability in the American foreign policy, analysts told Business World..
Republican presidential bet Trump’s remarks during the CNN sponsored presidential debate on Friday raised concerns about America’s commitment to alliances, particularly amid China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.
“It appears that Trump is not interested in a rules-based order. In contrast, he favors a transactional-based order,” said Professor Joshua Bernard B. Espeña, who teaches foreign policy at Polytechnic University of the Philippines..
Friday’s debate was marked by Biden’s unsteady and disastrous performance, prompting calls by the international community for him to drop out of the 2024 race.
Citing a poll conducted by SSRS, CNN reported that voters who watched the presidential debate largely believed Trump, who was leading in all battleground states before Friday’s event, “outperformed” Biden.
“Republicans who watched the first 2024 debate expressed broad confidence in Trump’s performance, the poll finds, with Democrats less sanguine about their party’s presumptive nominee,” CNN added.
“A near-universal 96 percent of GOP debate watchers say Trump did the better job in the debate, while a more modest 69 percent of Democratic debate watchers view Biden as the night’s winner,” it added.
Trump showed skepticism over the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which drew unpredictability among US allies in his presidential term in 2016.
He also questioned the need to fund Ukraine’s war against Russia, accusing the US of giving more in aid to Ukraine than all other European countries combined.
Lack of substance in foreign policy
Espeña and other Philippine analysts cited a lack of substance on foreign policy at the debate, which they said could indicate a more inward-looking US.
“The US is at an interesting time whereby it has seemingly been overstretched by a myriad of challenges. This has serious implications for the Philippines.”
Chester B. Cabalza, president at think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, said Trump’s protectionist sentiment “comes at a point when the US has become Europe’s gatekeeper of peace at the expense of American taxes.”
“This may reflect in his international affairs management in his possible return to the White House,” he told Business World.
An unpredictable US does not bode well for international efforts to counter authoritarian threats from Russia and China, he added.
China has gained international condemnation for its dangerous maneuvers and water cannon attacks against Filipino vessels sailing within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, which Beijing entirely claims.
Days before the debate in Washington, a confrontation between Filipino troops and Chinese forces in Second Thomas Shoal, prompted discussions on whether there’s a need to activate Manila’s 1950s mutual defense treaty with Washington.
“Manila must prepare to fight alone for a certain period if a conflict occurs during Trump’s time or whether Trumpian America would abandon Manila at the mercy of Beijing for some sort of concessions to avoid wars to please his domestic audience,” Espeña said
“It would be prudent to prioritize having better security links with remaining partners in the region such as Japan and Australia should a worse-case scenario occur,” Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila, said.
Juliano said it is pragmatic for Manila to explore ties with economic giants in Asia such as India and every country in East Asia that shares our issues and priorities like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. He noted the fertile areas of cooperation with New Delhi like the BPO and tech sectors.
Espeña said Japan and Australia, which are among America’s major partners in the region, may not be as fierce as they have been under Biden amid China’s expansionist agenda should the US turn inward.
The best bet for Manila and its partners is to either hope Trump would lose, Trump would listen to his advisers and allies, and Trump would change his mind, they noted.
Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco, a fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center, said now is the best time for the Philippines to “reconsider reviving over reliance– without abandoning strategic alliances like joint patrols and drills– on the US for external defense.”