2nd crack

The Senate impeachment court’s vote on the proposal to lower the two-thirds threshold needed to convict Vice President Sara Duterte has exposed a disturbing dimension of Philippine politics: the power of fear.

Senator Mark Villar’s decision to break from the minority bloc and support lowering the conviction threshold is significant not only because of its potential impact on the impeachment proceedings, but also because of the political circumstances surrounding his family. Possible criminal and administrative complaints reportedly being pursued by the Ombudsman against members of the Villar family inevitably raise questions about whether political calculations are influencing the Senate’s conduct.

He is not the first senator to cross the divide. Presiding Judge Chiz Escudero was the first to leave the minority and helped break the impasse in Senate leadership. With two senators now moving toward the majority, however, conviction of the Vice President is far from assured. The arithmetic remains uncertain.

But numbers are only part of the story.

The more troubling possibility is that political alignments are being shaped not by arguments over constitutional principles, evidence, or the merits of impeachment, but by the prospect of legal consequences. If senators believe that opposing the administration could expose themselves or their families to criminal prosecution, then the independence of the impeachment court becomes difficult to defend.

The images of Senators Rodante Marcoleta and Jinggoy Estrada, along with former Speaker Martin Romualdez, behind bars—deprived, at least symbolically, of special treatment often associated with powerful politicians—may have delivered a potent political message.

Perhaps the old-fashioned lure of money is no longer enough. The threat of imprisonment may be proving more persuasive.

That should alarm everyone.

An impeachment court must not become an instrument for rewarding allies and frightening opponents. The same standards must apply whether a senator belongs to the majority or minority, and whether his family is facing an investigation or not.

And then there is Senator Allan Peter Cayetano, whose hard-hitting—and often comedic—style makes him one of the harder senators to bring into line. If pressure is indeed being applied behind the scenes, he may yet prove that not every senator can be easily intimidated.

In an impeachment trial, conviction should come from evidence—not fear.