Ukraine crisis and Philippine security

While Filipinos get entertained and take a respite from the political noise with Apollo Quibiloy’s legal team making fun of the US justice system, there is a far greater concern few consider serious at this time.

The Russian threat of invading Ukraine could have repercussions with a small far east Asian country.

Russia has mimicked China – or China mimicked Russia? – justifying the threat by believing Ukraine is historically part of Russia (actually of the former USSR). In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, an island in the south of Ukraine, violently of course, raising howls around the globe including US sanctions.

Many Ukrainians speak Russian. The ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was pro-Russia. The ousting sparked the Crimea invasion. The current administration faces militant pro-Russian separatists who were responsible for a 2014 missile attack on a Malaysian airliner, killing all passengers.

Russia does not want Ukraine to become a member of NATO because Ukraine is just their next-door neighbor and a possible staging ground for any NATO attack on Russia.

According to US intelligence, Russia plans to create a video showing Ukrainian military attacking Russian civilians (with graphic images) allegedly within Russian territory, giving justification for an invasion.

At present, Russian has positioned 100,000 troops around the borders of Ukraine and yet Russia repeatedly denies any plan of invasion. Putin’s statements have been enigmatic.

Putin demands that NATO commits not to accept Ukraine as member.

US Pres. Biden warns of serious economic sanctions in case of invasion. Biden’s position is not to deploy US troops inside Ukraine because it is not yet a NATO member. But US troops – less than 10,000 – are being sent to Ukraine’s neighbors for quick deployment just in case.

What has these got to do with the Philippines? In case of war in Ukraine, US attention will be in eastern Europe, away from the West Philippine Sea. The invasion can prompt China to do the same with Taiwan which expects US to come their aid.

When the missiles start flying, one of the first targets of China will be possible refueling bases in the Philippines by US forces. The country’s main airport NAIA could be one of those targets, jeopardizing Metro Manila’s safety due to wayward missiles.

An emboldened China because the US is busy in Ukraine can destroy any location inside the Philippines that can serve as staging points for Americans. That alone will activate the RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty.

Just like at the start of World War II, the US will be sucked into a war far from their shores, sacrificing American and Filipino lives for a cause they don’t totally comprehend.

China could actually just be waiting for start of hostilities in Ukraine before making a move. Their fleet of paramilitary ships are everywhere in the West Philippine Sea. Their man-made islands are full of fuel and missiles. They are ready.