BOP outlook revised amid global uncertainty

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has adjusted its balance of payments (BOP) forecast for 2025, citing global economic uncertainties that could impact the country’s external position. 

The BOP, which summarizes a nation’s transactions with the rest of the world, is now expected to register a USD4 billion deficit this year, a sharp reversal from the earlier projected USD2.1 billion surplus, the BSP announced late Monday.

Despite external risks, the BSP remains optimistic about the domestic economy’s resilience. 

“Domestic expansion driven by private consumption, investments, including government infrastructure spending, as well as continued progress on legislative reforms to improve the business environment should encourage foreign investments and positively impact the external sector outlook in the near to medium term,” it said.

For 2026, the BOP deficit is forecast to widen further to USD4.3 billion, reflecting the impact of slowing global trade and subdued investor confidence. 

“The Philippine balance of payments (BOP) position is projected to be weaker in 2025-2026 due to slower global trade and subdued investor confidence linked to increased uncertainty in global trade policy and geopolitical developments,” the BSP noted. 

However, it added that the “outlook nevertheless reflects sustained expansion in the domestic economy, supported by easing inflation and less restrictive monetary policy.”

The BSP also expects a wider current account shortfall, with the deficit projected to reach USD19.8 billion in 2025, up from the previous estimate of USD12.1 billion. By 2026, the shortfall is expected to hit USD21.2 billion due to a higher trade-in-goods deficit and lower net receipts in trade-in-services. Exports are projected to grow by 1% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, while imports are forecast to expand by 4% in both years.