PAGASA forecasts prolonged El Niño

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the El Niño phenomenon may begin developing around July this year and could persist through the August to October period as warmer ocean temperatures emerge.

In an announcement, Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said the weather bureau has been monitoring the possible formation of El Niño since December last year.

She noted that recent observations show an increasing likelihood that the climate pattern could develop later this year.

“Since we started monitoring the potential development of El Niño in December, we have seen the increasing probability of getting it this year—at least by August-September-October season,” Solis said.

However, Solis clarified that the initial impact of the developing weather phenomenon will not immediately manifest as drought or extreme heat.

Instead, it could bring heavier rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, particularly in western parts of Luzon.

“During El Niño, it doesn’t always mean drought. El Niño also means that the Western Luzon area, which we call the Type 1 climate during the habagat season, experiences intense rainfall. Our countrymen in Western Luzon need to be prepared that when El Niño arrives, there will be heavy rain and floods during the habagat season,” she explained.

She warned that once the Southwest Monsoon season ends, the country may begin experiencing reduced rainfall that could lead to dry spells or drought.

“And then after the habagat season, we will experience a lack of rainwater, which could lead to a dry spell or drought,” Solis said.

If the climate phenomenon persists, PAGASA’s historical records show that parts of Luzon could start experiencing below-normal rainfall as early as the last quarter of 2026.

Solis also said warmer temperatures may continue into 2027 as the Northeast Monsoon, locally known as amihan, is already weakening.

“The intense or warmer temperatures expected with the imminent El Niño could persist only during the 2027 dry season. If this El Niño prolongs this year, it may impact our hot temperatures next year,” she added.

She also noted that heat index levels in 2027 could be comparable to the record-breaking temperatures recorded in 2024, although the outlook may still change depending on the strength and duration of the phenomenon.

“Right now, we haven’t seen its full strength yet, whether it will last longer or intensify. What we see is a high possibility of an El Niño this year, August-September-October season,” Solis said.

For now, PAGASA urged the public to prepare for the possibility of heavier rainfall and flooding during the upcoming habagat season linked to the developing El Niño. TRACY CABRERA