The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
By Yoo Seungki
Seoul—South Korea is divided on whether to deploy a sophisticated US missile defense system in its territory over worries about the expected escalation of regional tensions and the unproven plausibility of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad), both militarily and environmentally.
The official announcement of South Korea and the United States would begin talks about the Thaad deployment came just hours after North Korea’s launch of a long-range rocket on February 7.
The rocket launch, which Pyongyang claimed was part of a peaceful space program but which Seoul and Washington denounced as a test of banned ballistic missile technology, followed North Korea’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6, the first of its disputed H-bomb test.
Calling Pyongyang’s repeated rocket launches and nuclear tests as a serious threat of weapons of mass destruction in the region, Seoul’s defense ministry said the Thaad deployment would be focused solely on defending South Korea againstmounting nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.
Opponents, especially opposition lawmakers in South Korea, said the deployment could escalate regional tensions; China and Russia both expressed opposition to the Thaad, since its radar can help US forces locate missiles in a broader range of the Asian continent beyond North Korea.
Experts opposing the Thaad were skeptical about its operational effectiveness in South Korea. They say that while it is one of the most advanced missile-defense systems in the world, it falls short of shielding the country from hundreds of shorter-range North Korea missiles that can fall on the entire South Korea in several minutes.
Controversy over an environmental effect also remained, as the Thaad’s radar emits super-strong microwaves that harm human bodies and have paralyzing electronic devices.
Coverage beyond North Korea Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke out against the possible Thaad deployment in South Korea at a meeting with his US counterpart, John Kerry, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. He said it would complicate the regional stability situation.
“The deployment of the Thaad system by the United States…goes far beyond the defense needs of the Korean Peninsula and the coverage would mean it will reach deep into the Asian continent,” Wang said.
Seoul’s defense ministry has claimed that the Thaad is not targeting China or any other country except North Korea, but its radar will help US troops in South Korea spot missiles in some regions of China and Russia bordering North Korea.
The Thaad’s X-band radar, or the AN/TPY-2 radar, reportedly has two versions: forward-based mode (FBM) and terminal mode (TM) that are the same in hardware and different in software and communications system.
The terminal mode, which Seoul is seeking to adopt, has a maximum detecting range of 600 km, while the forward mode can track missiles as far as 1,800 km. As the two have the same hardware, the terminal mode can be converted into the forward mode when necessary.
Seeing a rise in demand for the US anti-missile system among South Korea’s ruling party lawmakers as a sign of imminent deployment, Russian Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Timonin expressed opposition to the US air defense system in early February.
Timonin called for all relevant parties to exercise restraint, saying the Thaad deployment in South Korea would not give any help or benefit to regional peace and stability and in resolving a nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula.
The Thaad issue caused mixed reactions among South Korean politicians. Lee Jong-Geol, floor leader of the main opposition Minju Party, appeared in a program of local broadcaster MBC on Sunday, saying that his party hasn’t opposed to discussions on the Thaad deployment “unconditionally.”
“What’s important is that China and Russia are thinking of the Thaad as a strategy toward them, not toward North Korea,” said Lee. He noted that if such situations continue, the Thaad deployment would escalate regional tensions and endanger the peninsula’s peace.
Refuting Lee’s comments, ruling Saenuri Party Floor Leader Won Yoo-chul told the same TV program that the Thaad was the only available tool to effectively deter the North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.
Operational effectiveness of the Thaad has long fallen under suspicion, as the US air-defense system aims to track and destroy missiles at an altitude of 40-150 km during the terminal phase of flight. It means an interception of missiles just inside or outside of the stratosphere after the missiles begin falling closer to the ground.
Most of the North Korean missiles directly targeting South Korea fly at a much lower altitude, propping up suspicion about the Thaad’s effectiveness in the South Korean territory. Pyongyang is known to have about 400 Scud missiles with a 300-700 km range and around 300 Rodong missiles that can hit targets as far as 1,200 km.
The 700 attack missiles and other shorter-range arsenal, including multiple-rocket launchers deployed in border areas, fly at an altitude of less than 20 km, being capable of striking Seoul within a minute and the entire South Korea in 10 minutes. PNA/Xinhua