Grace Poe most likely winner for president

In an election year, Easter is a crucial time in the campaign period. This is the time when most of the country’s voters would have already made their choices as to whom they would vote for—at least, as far as the top executive positions in the national and local governments are concerned. 

There are two reasons why this is so.

First, the people are emerging from a week of quiet. The relatively strong spiritual atmosphere has helped them reflect on their options in the May 2016 polls. They would have had enough time to weigh such options and come up with a clear decision that their consciences and interests support.

Second, the people are looking forward to a summer of fun with their families. They would not want to be bothered by the weight of political decision-making and listening to the posturing of candidates who vie for their precious attention.

By this time, political advertising no longer has value in terms of raising awareness or converting voters. Political commercials will now merely serve to create the so-called “last-song syndrome”—the near-instant recall of the candidates’ names by voters.

If these hypotheses about the Easter-season disposition of voters prove true, then Sen. Grace Poe-Llamanzares could be the most likely winner in the coming elections for president.

She was a few points ahead in all surveys just before the country embarked on the Holy Week break. The Lenten observance may have cemented the commitment of those who have registered a preference for her as the country’s next chief executive.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte’s and Vice President Jejomar Binay’s chances of winning the elections now hinge on ground operations. Since their ratings are not too far behind that of Poe’s, they may still win, depending on the ability of their respective on-ground machineries to get their supporters to go out and vote.

Former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas’s chances of winning are still there, too. Raising the chances, however, would require the massive mobilization of party and administration resources. Among the candidates for president, it appears Roxas is the weakest when it comes to voter commitment.

It may require extra effort on the part of his party and the administration to get those who support him to actually go out of their homes on May 9, troop to the polls, endure the heat and the long lines in the precincts and mark their ballots in his favor.

There is one more debate among the presidential aspirants slated before the elections. We doubt, however, if that last debate would significantly influence voter preference and commitment. At this point, the people have heard and seen everything they need to come up with a decision and to commit to it.

We believe the last debate would be like preaching to the converted. It would be viewed and listened to by the cohorts who are already fans of the presidential contenders.

If the Poe faithful do go to the polls in significant numbers, then we are looking at the possibility of a third woman president.

The future ex-president would see no problem with this. The view is that a possible Poe victory creates no discomfort on the part of the current Palace occupant. There are even rumors that a high-ranking Palace functionary was responsible for paving the way for a Supreme Court decision favorable to the presidential bid of Poe.

Therein lies the mortal blow to the presidential bid of Roxas. There is one high-commitment vote he did not get—that of the future ex-president.

We believe PNoy has not moved the proverbial heaven and earth to get Roxas to win the elections. Pnoy’s is not a high-commitment Roxas vote. He has also placed his bets on other possible winners. As far as Roxas’s bid is concerned, PNoy is merely a bettor, not a stakeholder.

This is unfortunate.

If the choice for the next president would be based on education, experience, and track record, Roxas would fare quite well versus his opponents.

But he had his hands tied. He had to peddle that tired, old slogan—“matuwid na daan”—as part of the deal to have the future ex-president endorse his bid.

It is such a pity that, in this campaign, the public never got to see or hear the real Roxas.

His chief patron, who lacks the commitment to get him elected, has been the Achilles Heel of his campaign, all along.