The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
Rice imports this year would surpass four-million metric tons as output would not be sufficient to meet demand by 17 percent, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
Based on data obtained from the Department of Agriculture and other agencies, the projected import volume will address the projected supply shortfall of 2.653 MMT for the year.
The Department of Economy, Planning and Development (successor of NEDA) said imports will also enable the Philippines to have an ending stock of 3.918 MMT to form part of its supply for 2026.
The agency estimated that local production by the end 2025 will reach 12.888 MMT while demand is estimated at 15.54 MMT.
Imported rice arrivals reached 2.3 MMT as of July 10, based on latest data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI).
Of the total volume, 1.76 MMT of rice came from Vietnam, the consistent top supplier, followed by Myanmar at 306,702.33 MT, which dislodged Thailand as the second-largest supplier.
The Philippines also purchased rice from other countries, such as Thailand (134,163.33 MT), Pakistan (74,964.02 MT), and India (19,521.91 MT).
In addition, the agency issued 3,636 sanitary and phytosanitary import clearances (SPSICs) for the purchase of 3.18 MMT of imported rice.
Earlier, Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa voiced optimism that the country’s purchases of the staple grain would be below the 2024 record-high volume.
“It will be lower than last year’s 4.8 MMT,” De Mesa told reporters, citing the “reasonable” level of rice imports this year would range from 3.8 MMT to 4 MMT.
DA officials projected that rice imports will decline this year due to the expected rebound in local palay production.
With the all-time-high output of paddy rice in the first semester, the DA expressed confidence that the country could surpass its 2025 production target of 20.46 MMT, higher than the 20.06 MMT record set in 2023.
“Palay and corn production for the January-June semester gives us hope for a better year for agriculture despite the challenges we now face,” DA Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. declared.
“Mother Nature permitting, and with the help of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and lawmakers, we are cautiously optimistic that we could post a record harvest this year.”
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) indicated that palay production in the first semester stood at 9.08 MMT, from 8.53 MMT in the same period last year.
The last time unmilled rice production breached the 9-MMT mark in the first half of the year was in 2023, when it reached 9.026 MMT.In 2024, PSA data showed that paddy rice production fell by 4.8 percent to 19.087 MMT, from the 20.059 MMT recorded in 2023.