The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
By Rose de la Cruz
The actual palay production in 2023 was 20 million metric tons (MMT), considered a record compared to previous decades, but the production for 2024 would only be 20.1 MMT based on the downgraded forecast of the Department of Agriculture (from the original projection of 20.4 MMT) because of El Nino and subsequent losses from the storms and habagat.
Already the Philippine Statistics Authority reported that based on standing crops as of August 1, palay output would decline by 11.4 percent in the third quarter to 3.36 MMT, or falling short of the 3.8 MMT in total output reported for the third quarter of 2023, Business World said.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier slashed its palay production estimate to 20.1 MMT for 2024, from the 20.44 MMT forecast issued earlier.
The PSA said that the total harvest area likely decreased 14.1 percent year on year to 796,470 hectares.
“The yield per hectare of palay may increase to 4.22 MT or by 2.9 percent from (the year-earlier) yield of 4.10 MT,” the PSA said.
It added that 14.6 percent or 116,410 hectares of the crop was harvested as of Aug 1. It is about 469,400 MT, Business World quoted PSA.
“Of the total area of standing palay yet to be harvested, 14.9% were at the vegetative stage, 58.7% at the reproductive stage, and 26.4% at the maturing stage,” the PSA said.
Projections for corn production was seen rising to 2.4 percent hitting 2.52 MMT during the period, compared to the actual output of 2.47 MMT a year ago.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. has said that agricultural production could improve in the second half if no major typhoons damage the standing crop.
“The third and fourth quarter output should be good because we have water, but the only problem is if we get hit by storms or heavy rains,” Laurel said.
The DA has an output growth target of between 1 to 2 percent for 2024, taking into account the impact of the El Niño and La Niña weather events.
“But I’m still optimistic that it will be much better than the first half of this year,” Laurel added.
Agricultural production declined 3.3 percent during the second quarter, worsening from the 1.2 percent drop a year prior, the PSA said.
“For the forecast this year we need to know the adjusted forecast by the end of September,” he said.