Mixed movements in fuel prices this week

Motorists are expected to see mixed movements in fuel prices this week, with gasoline likely to go down while diesel is projected to increase amid continuing concerns over global oil supply disruptions tied to tensions in the Middle East.

According to projections by Leo Bellas, gasoline prices may roll back by around ₱1.00 to ₱1.50 per liter, while diesel prices could go up by about ₱4.00 to ₱4.50 per liter.

Bellas said recent movements in the global oil market were driven by rising crude and refined product prices this week, as traders reacted to stalled diplomatic efforts and fears of prolonged supply disruptions in key producing regions.

“Crude oil and refined fuel products prices have rallied this week (last week) on worries of stalled diplomacy and prolonged supply disruption following the suspension of negotiations on the peace deal, and renewed threats by Iran of full closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Bellas said.

He added that concerns over tightening global inventories are also pushing prices higher, as continued stock draws raise fears that supply levels could reach critical lows if current trends persist.

Diesel, in particular, has been affected by stronger demand for middle distillates and the recent surge in crude benchmarks, with market sentiment weighed down by uncertainty over possible disruptions in supply routes and production flows.

“Reflected the sharp surge in crude oil price benchmarks as the prospect of a resolution in the Middle East conflict has faded, sparking worries that further disruption of feedstock availability from the region would result (in) faster depletion of global stock inventories as peak summer demand approaches,” he explained.

On the other hand, gasoline prices are moving downward due to improved supply conditions in parts of Asia, where increased refinery output and weaker demand have helped ease pressure on prices.

“Due to increased supply from regional refineries and signals of weak demand in some parts of Asia,” Bellas said.

He also noted that recent geopolitical developments may help soften global oil prices further, particularly following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon and renewed hopes for continued negotiations involving the United States and Iran.

“Following the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, global oil prices have softened and likely to ease down further as hopes that the peace talks between the US and Iran will continue,” Bellas said.

Bellas added that movements in the Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark could influence the final adjustment, potentially pushing diesel increases toward the lower end of the forecast range while allowing gasoline rollback to lean toward the higher side.