Roxas’s woe: Binay’s ‘indestructibility’

There are several ways to spin the results of the last survey of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) for 2015, which was commissioned by a business newspaper. 

It will be recalled that that survey showed Vice President Jejomar Binay and Sen. Grace Poe in a tie at the top spot at 26 percent voter preference, followed by former Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas at 22 percent, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte at 20 percent, and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago at 4 percent.

ome quarters were quick to spin the results as a “statistical tie” for first place, insisting that Roxas has already caught up with erstwhile survey leaders Poe and Binay.

We will not dispute the assertion. Survey firms use a term called “margin of error” which is apparently the basis for the view that Binay, Poe and Roxas are “statistically tied” at first place in terms of voter preference.

The other view, however, must be alarming to the Roxas camp. That view is that Roxas has yet to take the lead in the surveys, that he continues to trail Poe and Binay in the polls, and that Binay is back in the saddle.

This must be puzzling to the Roxas campaign team. The SWS poll was taken at the height of the disqualification controversy hounding Poe and despite the continuing media assault on Binay fueled by allegations of graft and corruption against him.

This could mean that both Poe and Binay have cemented the commitments of their core of voters. The results apparently prove that Poe’s voters will keep their preference for her and would not migrate to another presidential aspirant despite the specter of a disqualification from running in the 2016 elections.

Chances are these Poe voters may simply stay away from the elections if Poe were to be disqualified or still tick off her name if she manages to stay in the ballot despite an adverse Supreme Court ruling on her presidential bid.

Meanwhile, the demolition campaign against Binay has been running for more than a year now.

Despite this, Roxas has yet to overtake him in the polls. The Roxas camp may have to accept the reality that Binay’s appeal to voters is “indestructible.”

One more thing must be alarming to the Roxas camp: their bet has not gained survey leadership despite the absence of the challenges hounding Poe, Binay and the other front-runner, Duterte.

Roxas is not facing any formal charges of graft and corruption, and neither is there any bid to disqualify him. Yet, there are fewer voters who would prefer him.

His social media brigade continues to promote him as “Mr. Clean” and the only aspirant with the right to continue the legacy of “matuwid na daan.” Still, more voters would prefer Poe, Binay and Duterte over him.

There must really be something in Roxas that simply shoos voters away.

There is one last thing that should alarm the Roxas campaign team: based on the last SWS survey for 2015, the percentage of undecided voters have shrunk to a mere one percent.

That leaves his team nowhere to convert votes in Roxas’s favor. It is very unlikely that the Poe and Binay faithful would ever consider converting into Roxas fans. The aversion toward Roxas appears to be insurmountable as far as that sector is concerned.

Interestingly, the November Pulse Asia survey showed that Binay leads Roxas in the National Capital Region across all economic classes. The results of that survey demolished earlier impressions that the rich and the educated would pick Roxas over the Vice President.

In all likelihood, the Roxas camp will have no recourse but to simply up its advertising spending in the hope that voters would fall in love with a dancing, basketball-shooting and chest-bumping Roxas.

According to reliable sources, the Roxas camp has recruited another retired veteran advertising person to beef up his communication team. Let us wait and see what the January 2016 advertising materials from the latest addition to his advertising powerhouse team would come up with.

We hope such efforts work.

If huge advertising spending don’t work for Roxas, the administration may have to consider other ways to make its bet win.

We can only shudder at the thought of what those alternative options are.