Optimism in Roxas camp

Based on reports from very reliable sources and conversations with insiders, the fact is there is an air of optimism in the camp of presidential candidate and former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas. 

According to them, confidence remains high that Roxas may still bag the presidency in the May 9 polls. Some might say this is wishful thinking. Others say there may be a good basis for the optimistic prognosis, given that Roxas has the backing of the administration and of a major political party.

Those who interpret the optimism as wishful thinking are probably looking at Roxas’s numbers in the surveys.

Based on the latest survey done by Pulse Asia and published last week, Roxas is still lagging behind in the race at No. 4. The frontrunner, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte enjoyed a two-point increase in voter preference. Sen. Grace Poe and Vice President Jejomar Binay, at No. 2 and 3, respectively, had their preference numbers unchanged.

Roxas, in contrast, suffered a one-point drop while keeping the fourth spot.

If the survey figures are accurate, it would be nearly impossible for Roxas to overtake Duterte for the top spot, given that the elections are barely three weeks away. Duterte’s voter preference rating is nearly twice that of Roxas: 32 percent versus 18 percent.

The sagging ratings have been generated while the Roxas creative group continues to scamper for a formula to get the public excited about their candidate. They have experimented with nearly all available variants, beginning with the tired spiel regarding the “matuwid na daan” line. Still, no major surge in Roxas’s voter-preference rating.

It looks like he is simply not what most Filipino voters are looking for in this elections. Or, at least, not the many versions of him that his failed communication team had created.

Meanwhile, there are those who say that there is basis for the optimism.

One basis is the apparent propensity of frontrunner Duterte to stumble into unnecessary controversies, the latest of which is supposed to be that unfortunate remark about an Australian rape victim.

Roxas’s camp apparently believes this would cause Duterte to lose votes. The question, of course, is where the votes would go. There are strong doubts, of course, that those who would opt not to vote for Duterte would want to mark Roxas’s name on the ballot.

Their other basis for the optimism is the supposed vaunted Liberal Party machinery.

Election Day proper is the most crucial moment in the operations of all candidates. It is an established principle that the candidate who has the machinery to bring voters to the precincts and ensure that they vote has an overwhelming edge over his or her rivals.

The LP has that. Talks are that the LPs at the local government units have already done the math. If they can ensure that at least 30 percent of the voters in their localities go out and do vote for Roxas, then he could actually win.

We share the view that this kind of capability may not be present in the Duterte and Poe camps. Roxas has the edge here. His only rival in this area would be Vice President Binay. The latter does have a tried-and-tested machinery for delivering votes.

If these bases are solid, then it is true – Roxas must not be counted out. Even at fourth with a pathetic 18 percent showing in the surveys, he is still a contender.

Perhaps, this was what Roxas and Binay meant when they said – in their own words – that the real survey takes place on Election Day. Yes. And, the real respondents are those who are actually going out of their houses, ready to endure the heat of summer and the inconvenience of lining up in the precincts just to mark their candidate’s name on the ballot.

Roxas’s optimistic camp must hope that Duterte’s followers are not the high-commitment kind. If they are, then the latter basis for optimism would still be nothing more than wishful thinking.

There is a major possibility that Duterte’s followers are committed enough to make sure that their candidate wins. If this is the case, then they will bear the inconvenience, troop to the precincts and guard their votes.

A party machinery would not be necessary for this kind of voters.

Yes, this is the kind of voters Roxas does not have—and, for which he would need a solid party machinery.