Surveys do not translate to votes

While election surveys largely depict prevailing emotional preference of poll respondents, results do not necessarily translate to votes on election day as some respondents may not be eligible voters.

This is according to Dr. Guido David, fellow of Octa Research, and Atty. Aureli Sinsuat, executive director of Publicis Asia, who were guests at the resumption of in-person Kapihan ng Samahang Plaridel held April 4, 2022 at the Manila Hotel and moderated by veteran journalist Jullie Yap-Daza.

Both Dr. David and Atty. Sinsuat debunked insinuations that surveys condition the minds of the public, explaining the complex processes involved in random polls.

After interpreting the data, Dr. David clarified these do not predict the outcome of the May 9 elections because scope of respondents represents a small percentage of all voters.

“Perception, coupled with trust, often determine the preference of respondents,” said Dr. David, regardless of whether such perception is fact-based.

Atty. Sinsuat, representing the local affiliate of the Paris-based advertising and PR company, added that “Trust is the fundamental currency of electoral politics” in this country. Consequently, “candidates with higher poll shares will have higher trust levels.”

In the last quarterly survey, Publicis data showed Vice President Leni Robredo trailed President Rodrigo Duterte in trust ratings, according to Sinsuat.

Dr. David added that the consistent lead of former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. at surveys indicate not only the early groundwork by BBM’s camp but also the scope and extent of their political machinery.

However, according to David, surveys are unable to filter if disinformation is affecting the preference of respondents.

Sinsuat countered by saying they actively try to eliminate any interviewer bias during surveys so as to maintain objectivity.

The endorsement of Pres. Duterte also seem to have an effect on the survey ratings of several senatorial candidates, according to Sinsuat.