The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
I got confused reading the business papers, particularly on the rice stockpile last March.
The Business Mirror headline said Phl. rice stockpile expands in March. But the Business World headline read: the national rice inventory at the start of March fell 19.6% month on month.
Mind you both are quoting the same data– the Philippine Statistics Authority.
So let’s review their reports:
Business Mirror: “The country’s rice stockpile grew by 18 percent in March, with households and the National Food Authority (NFA) posting bigger inventories. PSA data showed that rice stocks increased to 1.61 million metric tons (MMT) as of March 1 from the previous year’s 1.37 MMT.”
“This month’s rice stocks inventories registered annual increases of 626.3 percent from the NFA depositories and 12.9 percent from the households. But an annual decrease was noted from the commercial sector by 16.3 percent.”
However, the state statistics agency noted that last month’s stock inventory was 19.6 percent lower than the 2.01 MMT recorded in February.
The agency said 48.7 percent or 784,500 metric tons (MT) was stored by households, while 32.7 percent or some 527,780 MT of rice was held by commercial entities.
It added that rice stocks in the NFA warehouses as of March 1 reached 299,860 MT, accounting for 18.6 percent of total inventory during the reference period.
From Business World: “Rice stocks hit 1.16 million metric tons (MMT) as of Feb. 1, from 2.01 MMT a month earlier. The national rice inventory rose 18.0%, from 1.37 MMT a year earlier, the PSA said.
As of March 1, 48.7% of the rice inventory was held by households, 32.7% by the commercial sector, and 18.6% by the National Food Authority (NFA). Rice held by the NFA rose 3.7% month on month. Over the same period, commercial holdings fell 42.8% and those of households declined 1.3%.
Year on year, NFA stocks rose 626.37%, while rice held households rose 12.9%. Commercial entities held 16.3% less rice.
Those two reports came out the same day: April 7, 2025 and were based on one specific document– the PSA.
If I got confused as to which one’s interpretation is correct about the stats presented, how much more the ordinary reader. It makes me wonder, if I should trust government data which obfuscates rather than clarifies or if I should just wait for private sector analysts to give me the real lowdown.
The NFA in January was expected to buy at least 300,000 MT of palay in 2025. In February, Administrator Larry Lacson said it may procure as much as 870,000 MT “if there’s still a budget.”
The NFA has been seeking funds to increase its reserves to comply with the amended Rice Tariffication Law, which raised the stocking requirement to 15 days from nine days.
“In comparison to the February 2025 rice stocks levels, monthly decrements were noted from the commercial sector by 42.8 percent and in the households by 1.3 percent. Meanwhile, rice stocks inventory from the NFA depositories increased by 3.7 percent.”
To lower rice prices, the Department of Agriculture in January declared an emergency that triggered the release of rice reserves from NFA warehouses.