Will INC retain powerful political clout?

The week prior to the celebration of its 101st anniversary, the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) was able to remind the public that it wields vast political influence while going through what could be a major test of unity among its members.

In an uncharacteristic move, Justice Secretary Leila de Lima, at the behest of the legal counsel of the INC, issued a lookout bulletin against international celebrity Chris Brown. This was “uncharacteristic” because de Lima has been known to be less than accommodating to the interests of the INC.

Her lightning response to the INC plea to keep Brown in the country has been interpreted by many as a conciliatory gesture on the part of de Lima and an apparent recognition of the value the INC brings to whatever political aspiration she may have in 2016.

Meanwhile, the drama that unfolded at the INC residential compound Thursday night of last week appears to have demolished the myth about the rock-solid unity within the INC.

The compound is where the widow and some of the children of the late INC Executive Minister Eraño “Ka Erdie” Manalo live. Media rushed to the scene following reports a plea for help by Ka Erdie’s widow, Tenny Manalo, which went viral on social media.

The drama appears to be part of a bitter feud within the family of the much-revered Ka Erdie. Based on statements from INC officials, the wife and some children of Ka Erdie have been expelled from the church.

For the INC to expel the mother and siblings of its present executive minister signals a major row. Tenny Manalo has shadowed her husband, the late Ka Erdie, during the more than 40 crucial years that he served as chief INC shepherd. It is believed that she enjoys much affection from the INC flock, thanks to the charismatic leadership of her late husband.

As the political, media and gossip sectors plunge into an incisive analysis of this internal conflict, questions are being raised regarding the INC’s political value in the forthcoming 2016 elections.

Will the INC experience a major division? Will there be an exodus among its members? Will there be breakaway groups among the ranks of its ministers? Will the conflict further escalate and expose other, more serious cracks within the INC?

If the answer is “yes,” would the INC leadership still be counted on to deliver the highly prized “command votes” in the 2016 elections? The other subject of speculation is the role of church groups in Philippine elections, in general.

No other religious group has wielded—or is perceived to have exerted— influence on the outcome of elections in the country than the INC. Other religious groups have attempted to achieve the same feat. There are doubts if they did.

For example, the late Jaime Cardinal Sin of the Roman Catholic Church is remembered as having made a high-profile endorsement of candidates for national posts in the 1992 general elections. Sin asked his flock to “pray” for a list of candidates that included the late Speaker Ramon Mitra Jr.

Mitra fared poorly and landed fourth in that race. His performance raised serious doubts on the capability of the Catholic Church to influence the outcome of elections in the way the INC is perceived to be able to.

Meanwhile, activist-turned-preacher Eddie Villanueva’s bid for the presidency in 2004 put to test the ability of the socalled Christian and evangelical sectors to get one of their own elected.

Villanueva’s loyal following from his own Jesus is Lord Movement and the evangelical churches failed to replicate the INC’s perceived ability to deliver votes. In that five-cornered presidential derby, Villanueva landed fifth.

Regardless of the poor track record of religious groups along this line, political aspirants continue to court them. For example, it is expected that those eyeing political posts via the 2016 elections will be trooping to the worship stage of the Mike Velarde- led El Shaddai group.

We also recall Pastor Apollo Quiboloy of the Davao City-based Kingdom of Jesus Christ group sharing that political candidates trooped to his lair during the 2010 and 2013 campaign seasons.

The controversial Wilde Almeda also used to “pray over” political candidates.

Unlike the INC, the vote-delivery power of the other groups has not been quantified.

As for the INC, many local government executives swear that an INC endorsement could easily add some 10 to 15 percent to a candidate’s total number of votes.

While the INC is perceived to have failed to help Ambassador Eduardo Cojuangco win the 1992 presidential derby, it is perceived to have provided the votes that helped President Noynoy Aquino overtake former President Joseph Estrada in the 2010 polls.

There are two possibilities facing the INC as it marks its 101st anniversary.

The first is that this conflict could bring about the debacle of a bitter division- cum-exodus among its members. The second is that this conflict could consolidate the loyalty of its followers resulting in the marginalization of the faction identified with Ka Erdie’s widow.

It will take some time before we see how the wind will blow.

At this point, however, it will be safe to presume that the INC will never be the same again after the eventful one week preceding the celebration of its 101st anniversary.