Ardern surges in polls on NZ’s COVID-19 success

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s success in containing coronavirus has driven an extraordinary popularity surge that has put the youthful leader on course for a landslide win in September’s national election.

Ardern’s center-left Labour Party was up 14 points at 56.5 percent, according to a Newshub-Reid Research poll, with her rating as preferred prime minister surging 20.8 points to 59.5 percent.

The survey also indicated an overwhelming 91.6 percent backing for Ardern’s COVID-19 response, which involved a strict seven-week lockdown that appears to have the virus under control.

Support for the conservative National opposition slumped 12.7 points to 30.6 percent in the poll, with its leader Simon Bridges on 4.5 percent as preferred Prime Minister — down 6.1 points.

The figures mirror leaked research from Labour’s own pollster, UMR, which had Ardern’s party on 55 percent support and National at 29 percent.

Ardern, who won office on a wave of “Jacinda-mania” in 2017, said she was making no assumptions about the September 19 election.

“I’m taking nothing for granted,” the 39-year-old told Newshub. “The fact I’m making no assumptions about what will be the end outcome will be on election day should be a nod to that.”

Ardern’s personal approval rating is comparable to the 65 percent some polls gave former centre-right leader John Key, who won three elections before stepping down in 2016.

Support for Labour will be even more heartening for Ardern, giving the party a chance to govern in its own right for the first time since a German-style proportional voting system was introduced in 1996.

Ardern gained international acclaim for her empathetic response to last year’s Christchurch mosques massacre when a lone gunman murdered 51 Muslim worshippers.

But it was not reflected in polling and before the pandemic, indications were that Labour’s support had plateaued, with Ardern set to struggle in the September election because voters were turning away from her coalition partners.

Whether the latest jump in support can be maintained will depend on the long-term success of Ardern’s “go fast-go hard” coronavirus strategy.

It appears to be working so far, with New Zealand recording only 21 COVID-19 deaths in a population of five million.   AFP