Binay’s fall from grace

In just a year, Vice President Jejomar Binay has seen his numbers drop precipitously from 41 percent in June 2014 to 31 percent in September 2014, 26 percent in November 2014, and finally, to 22 percent this month, in presidential surveys conducted by independent polling firms.

The 19-percent drop is clearly indicative of the erosion of support for Binay, the erstwhile leading presidential aspirant, as reports of his alleged hidden wealth were exposed relentlessly in the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee hearings.

So now, Sen. Grace Poe has emerged as the most viable presidential candidate. Her numbers have surged by 18 percent from 12 percent in June 2104 to 30 percent this month, even without her declaring that she will run for president in next year elections.

The results show that Senator Grace, adopted daughter of the late actor Fernando Poe Jr. and actress Susan Roces, has become the leading presidential candidate of choice of voters for the 2016 national elections. She is peaking just in time for the filing of candidacies in October.

This, she was able to achieve without the benefit of the shameless political plugging we now see on television, like that of Binay, Davao City Mayor Rudy Duterte, Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Bongbong Marcos, Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla and Tesda Director-General Joel Villanueva.

VP Binay is trying to put up a brave front, but it is obvious his camp is in panic and disarray. Reports surfaced last week that the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) had tapped yet another personality, former newsman-turned politician, former Cainta Mayor Mon Ilagan, to be its additional spokesman

This puts Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco in a bind. Exactly what his role will be in the organization is now uncertain, as the party appears to be distancing itself from the social and political gaffe he inadvertently committed when he raised questions about Poe’s residency.

This ill-advised move, along with that by UNA Spokesman JV Bautista casting doubt on Poe’s citizenship, had apparently landed an egg on their faces. Instead of destroying the reputation of Senator Poe, it had the opposite effect of generating a groundswell of public support for the lawmaker.

What more proof do you need when the number of those preferring Poe to be their presidential candidate climbed by 16 percentage points to 30 percent in June from 14 percent in March? Toby’s and JV’s strategy obviously backfired.

Ominously, voter preference for Binay, who is facing corruption charges for alleged irregularities in Makati City when he was mayor, suffered a 7-point drop to 22 percent from 29 percent in March.

We believe the race for the 2016 presidential election is a done deal if Aquino chooses Poe as his successor. A number of political analysts are saying that only Poe is capable of beating Binay, especially if she has the backing of the ruling Liberal Party.

But, as previously mentioned in this column, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas will again have to make the ultimate sacrifice of running for vice president under Poe. No matter how he spins his rating (“150-percent jump from 4 percent to 10 percent!”), very few people think he can overcome Binay.

Meanwhile, Binay will surely fight tooth-and-nail to get back on top of the surveys, but we think the anomalies facing him are just too much baggage. One positive effect is that it appears voters are now getting more mature and discerning in choosing their leaders.

The VP cannot harp on the fact that he was able to overcome a 52-2 percent survey deficit in the last election versus Mar. He was the underdog then and corruption issues against him were not raised at that time.

The fact that his numbers are in a freefall, even as he tirelessly goes around the different provinces in the guise of delivering basic services does not bode well for the VP.

The handwriting is on the wall: VP Binay is in danger of losing his grip on power as he falls from top-of-mind position as presidential choice in 2016.