The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
The proven faith and resilience of Filipinos, not the claimed achievements of the Aquino administration, prompted the optimism for the new year expressed by about 90 percent of Filipinos in a Pulse Asia survey, according to former National Treasurer Leonor Magtolis Briones, lead convenor of the budget watchdog Social Watch Philippines (SWP).
Briones said the reduction of poverty and unemployment remains uncertain despite expected growth surge in 2016. “It is not surprising that many Filipinos are optimistic about 2016.
As a people of faith, they never lose hope that things would change for the better. They have remained optimistic during wars, famine, and natural, political and social calamities. They are looking forward to elections that would give them cash, free food, and temporary jobs” Briones said. “The question is: is the good news about 2016 sustainable?”
Pulse Asia released the results of a survey last week showing nine out of 10 Filipinos who said they will greet 2016 with hope.
Of the 1,800 respondents interviewed for the national poll, 89 percent said they were hopeful about the coming year.
The survey, which was conducted from December 4 to 11, showed that only one percent of Filipinos said they were pessimistic about 2016, with 11 percent of the respondents undecided.
The optimists were mostly in Manila (95 percent) and among Class ABC (92 percent).
Briones noted that the expected spike in gross domestic product (GDP) next year would be driven by an election budget and would not have sustainable impact on the poor and the unemployed.
“(The government), expecting a 7.5-percent to 8.5-percent growth next year, increased activity during elections and the year preceding it, creates a projection of progress and upward growth,” Briones.
But that growth, she said, would mainly come from election spending, which generates more jobs such as in construction and campaign work, albeit temporarily.
Election spending will also have an effect on banking and finance, with the splurge of money flowing around the economy.
“It should be noted that Government Final Consumption Expenditure was at 17.4 percent in the third quarter, compared to negative 2.5 percent in the same period last year,” Briones added.
The question remains whether election-driven growth would be sustained for the long term and whether it would directly benefit the poor and the marginalized, Briones said and asked: “Will this be sustainable enough to lift people out of poverty?”
Data from the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) showed GDP grew by 6 percent during the third quarter.
But Briones said the distribution of growth was dismal since the agriculture sector only posted a 0.4-percent growth while the major growth drivers in services and industry sectors posted 7.3-percent and 5.4-percent growth, respectively.
On the other hand, PSA estimated poverty incidence among Filipinos at 25.8 percent during the first semester of 2014 that fell short of the country’s Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of 17.2 percent by 2015.
A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey also showed that 15.7 percent of Filipino families experienced involuntary hunger during the third quarter.
Briones noted that little has changed in the country’s unemployment and underemployment level.
During the third quarter, PSA recorded unemployment at 6.5 percent and underemployment at 17.7 percent.
A year before, during the same period, unemployment stood at 6 percent while underemployment was at 18.7 percent.
“And considering that persons at work are defined by the Labor Force Survey as those working even for an hour a week, these fi gures appear understated,” Briones said.
Relatedly, Professor Marivic Raquiza, SWP co-convenor, said that while we are now looking at a P3-trillion plus budget next year, poverty, unemployment and hunger in the country have virtually remained the same for the past nine years.
“Our poverty has moved down slowly, according to MDG standards, and as compared to our Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) counterparts. We also failed to accomplish 19 out of 28 MDG indicators. These are proofs of the lack of correlation between economic growth and poverty and inequality.” Isagani Serrano, another SWP co-convenor said: “There is a need to rethink our approach in adopting a framework for promoting sustainable, low-carbon development. As Social Watch has been campaigning since 2006, the national budget should be a genuine equalizer in addressing poverty and inequality and a powerful tool for improving people’s lives and shaping a resilient future.”
Briones said poverty and unemployment would remain daunting challenges if the red flags in the budget remain intact. “Budgetary transfers and realignments brought about by the continued existence of pork, lump sums, and erroneous definition of savings will make it difficult for the reduction of poverty, inequality and hunger as well as employment generation,” Briones added.
“Social Watch along with its network of budget advocates urges the public to examine whether the 2016 budget tackles problems of poverty, hunger and unemployment. A huge budget does not certainly ensure that economic growth is enjoyed by all, especially the poor and vulnerable,” she said.
“The budget has to focus on the sectors where the poorest are and where unemployment is highest,” she said.
Briones said that even Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan has said “economic growth is necessary but not suffi cient for sustainable development.”