Economic chiefs see new optimism

Top economic executives said confidence on the economy is expected to make a strong rebound now that the Marawi conflict has ended and rehabilitation is on the way.

The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) also sees further pickup in business and consumer confidence in Mindanao.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said investors who may have put on hold their plans to expand their business or set up new ones, as well as consumers who have postponed their purchases, can now carry out their plans with greater boldness and certainty.

“We are optimistic that the people of Marawi will be back on their feet as soon as possible. With this, we anticipate a renewed boost in business and consumer confidence in Mindanao,” Pernia said, adding that such could also translate to even better tourism prospects for the country.

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III added the end of the conflict will further boost investor confidence in the economy, more so now that the government can focus on a comprehensive plan to reconstruct Marawi City and provide economic opportunities for its returning residents.

Dominguez said the record performance of the stock market recently after President Duterte announced the “liberation” of Marawi City from Islamist militants pointed to the positive investor sentiment on the end of the conflict.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas previously reported that business outlook for the fourth quarter of 2017 turned more positive, with the confidence index rising from 51.3 percent from 42.7 percent in the previous quarter.

Likewise, consumer sentiment turned more upbeat as the confidence index increased to 17.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2017 from 13.6 percent the previous quarter.

“This confidence is expected to be reflected in the country’s Gross Domestic Product growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2017 and the succeeding quarters of 2018,” he noted.

Neda has been working closely with Task Force Bangon Marawi (TFBM)—which was established by the President’s Administrative Order 3 as the inter-agency task force for the recovery, reconstruction, and rehabilitation of Marawi City.

Neda with the Department of Finance and the Department of Budget and Management, is in charge of resource mobilization.

It also leads the TFBM’s planning process and is currently integrating inputs of the Marawi City and Lanao del Sur local governments and the ARMM regional government in the rehabilitation plan.

“The government is committed to integrating crucial peacebuilding activities in the recovery and rehabilitation program. The ensuing peacebuilding efforts will also help ensure stability in the Mindanao region and help attract longer-term investments and boost greater consumer confidence,” Pernia said.

Serving as key member of Disaster Rehabilitation and Recovery of the TFBM, Neda provided a recommended framework which aims to build safer, adaptive, and disaster-resilient communities in Marawi.

It recommended that the Maranao culture be made integral in rebuilding Marawi and neighboring local government units, including concerns on overlapping land claims. This is apart from improving economic and social conditions and ensuring peace and security.

It suggested that maps containing, among others, proposed land-use and urban plans be produced.

Local government units, ARMM, and concerned national agencies have agreed to incorporate such analyses into their respective assessments.

“The rehabilitation and recovery of Marawi are gargantuan tasks which the government must see through. We should all work together to build a better Marawi,” Pernia said.

Terrorism nipped in bud

Mr. Duterte announced Marawi’s liberation after the deaths of terrorist leaders Isnilon Hapilon and Omarkhayam Maute in the hands of military sharpshooters during a predawn offensive last Oct. 16. The two Islamist militants led the attack on Marawi last May 23.

Mr. Duterte said Marawi’s liberation marked the “beginning of the rehabilitation” of the city.

Dominguez noted that even with the crisis in Marawi City and the declaration of martial law in Mindanao, the business community has remained bullish on the economy and supported the President’s decisive action to deal with the terrorist attack.

“We expect investor confidence to strengthen further and the economy to grow even faster now that the conflict has been virtually resolved and the government has started raising spending on infrastructure and human capital development, which will supercharge growth and create more jobs for our people,” Dominguez said.

The government still has to conduct clearing operations and assess the extent of the damage in Marawi so that it could come up with a detailed recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation program for the city, but efforts are now underway to provide immediate assistance to displaced residents and open up economic opportunities that would enable them to get back on their feet and rebuild their lives.

Mr. Duterte created last July an interagency task force chaired by Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana that will spearhead the recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation program for Marawi City.

Although the Department of Finance (DOF) is not a member of the Task Force, it is involved in the fund-raising aspect for the program, with Dominguez revealing plans last August for the Bureau of Treasury to sell “patriotic” bonds to aid in Marawi’s rehabilitation.

Earlier, Dominguez reported that World Bank chief executive officer Kristalina Georgieva has confirmed the institution’s commitment to work with the Philippine government in helping conflict-torn Marawi City rise from devastation, along with scaling up support for peace-building efforts in Mindanao.

In a recent meeting in Washington DC with Philippine officials led by Dominguez, Georgieva said the World Bank can provide technical aid and other forms of assistance to the Philippines to help rebuild Marawi City.

Georgieva also welcomed Dominguez’s plan to tap domestic resources to raise funds for Marawi’s reconstruction, which, she said, was “the right thing to do” and underscored the importance of “inclusive development” as a key aspect of the rehabilitation strategy for the city.

“We can only express all of our sympathy for what has been going on in Marawi,” said Georgieva during the meeting held at the World Bank office. “As an institution that has committed to peaceful development and dealing with conflict situations, we would be honored in helping in terms of [re]building and engaging in any possible way what we can do in this situation,” Georgieva said.

Besides Dominguez, also at the meeting were Secretaries Alan Peter Cayetano of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and Ernesto Pernia of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).

Mara Warwick, the World Bank country director for Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, was also at the meeting.