First quarter agri growth seen as modest

Former Department of Agriculture  Secretary William Dar described the  first quarter growth of only of 1 percent  in agriculture this year as modest. 

“It could have been better as the crops sector benefited from favorable weather,”  claimed Dar and other analysts, citing  the agriculture’s growth came from a low base last year due to El Nino.

But DA Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. is unfazed.

He said  he is expecting to see growth in all farm sectors except for hogs in the first quarter.

“Growth, except for pork, will be slight for chicken and rice,” he told reporters.

Laurel did not elaborate, although the hog industry continues to be impacted by the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak.

Farm production in the January-to-March period could have expanded by around 1% year on year, according to DAr.

If realized, this would be an improvement from the 0.05% growth in the first quarter of 2024, and a turnaround from the 2.2% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In 2024, agricultural and fisheries output shrank by 2.2%, reflecting the impact of the El Niño weather pattern.

Federation of Free Farmers general manager Raul Q. Montemayor said the volume of agricultural production likely improved since it came from a low base.

“Value wise, (it) will be lower due to drop in palay prices… Many farmers were discouraged by the drop in palay prices and may temper production in the second semester/wet season,” he said.

Jayson H. Cainglet of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura confirmed that farmgate prices of palay have declined to P16-P17 per kilo from a year ago.

In the first quarter, Dar said the crops sector likely saw a turnaround due to the good weather conditions and government assistance.

Crops production contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter and slumped by 4.2% for the full year.

Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc. President Danilo V. Fausto said the crops sector likely posted growth in the first quarter as the year-ago performance was affected by El Niño.

While there are good prospects for the palay (unmilled rice) sector, he said a contraction is likely in sugar, coconut and onion production.

“Lack of irrigation, better planting materials and soil management will affect productivity for crops,” Fausto added.

Former DA Undersecretary Fermin D. Adrian said the crops sector will “post modest growth” driven by a rebound in palay production.

“This cannot be said of livestock due to the ASF, and fisheries due to continuing depletion of our coastal resources and little progress in development of aqua/mariculture,” he added.

Livestock output shrank by 3.5% in the first quarter of 2024, and by 4.3 percent for the entire year. This was led by hogs, which fell by 4.3% in the period ending March and by 5.1 percent for the full year.

ASF continues to plague hog farms in the country. According to the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), ASF has been detected in 54 villages as of April 11 update, up from 39 as of March 14.

Dar said the poultry sector, which grew by 5.9% in the first quarter of 2024, may post minimal growth due to avian or bird flu. The poultry sector rose by 6.6 percent in 2024.

“While there will be growth in poultry, it will be very little due to avian flu,” he said.

The BAI last week said the country had two active cases of avian influenza in Pampanga province.

For fisheries, Fausto said he expects seaweed production to continue to decline. Seaweed output declined by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024, and by 10.7 percent for the entire year.

“Lack of hatchery facilities and overfishing remain a problem for our fisheries sector,” he said.