Fuel hike seen this week

Domestic pump prices are poised to climb again this week, with diesel and gasoline expected to rise by as much as ₱1 per liter, amid global supply concerns and geopolitical tensions.

In an advisory, Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said diesel prices may increase by ₱0.80 to ₱1 per liter, while gasoline could go up by ₱0.30 to ₱0.50 per liter, based on movements in the foreign exchange market and the Asian benchmark as of Thursday last week.

“Diesel price has found support from weather-related supply and demand issues, as well as the continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East that directly affects supply dynamics, at a time when Europe is moving away from Russian-origin supplies,” Bellas said.

He added that “the likelihood of limited diesel exports from China, largely due to expected higher domestic demand during the Lunar New Year festivities, has also offered near-term price support.”

Gasoline prices, however, have remained comparatively softer due to weaker fundamentals, Bellas noted.

He said rapidly rising crude prices—driven by fears of a potential US attack on Iran and reduced export outflows from China ahead of the Lunar New Year—have placed a floor under oil prices.

“The possible domestic price increase of gasoline can be attributed to the effects of a higher premium due to geopolitical tensions,” Bellas said.

Oil prices have been volatile this week, swinging between hopes of easing US-Iran tensions and concerns over possible supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage through which around 20 percent of oil exports from OPEC members flow.

“Other bullish factors include the decision by OPEC+ to keep March production output unchanged, the US-India trade deal in exchange for India, which should act as a near-term catalyst supporting oil prices, and the large draw in US crude and diesel/middle distillate inventories,” Bellas said.

Oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for at least the past five weeks, adding pressure to domestic fuel costs.