IBM eyes 2029 launch of fault-tolerant quantum computer

IBM has unveiled an ambitious plan to launch a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer called IBM Quantum Starling by 2029—a breakthrough timeline that surpasses most industry expectations and marks a major leap in the race toward practical quantum computing.

According to IBM, the Quantum Starling will be capable of executing 20,000 times more operations than today’s leading quantum machines. To put that into perspective, it would take more than a quindecillion (10⁴⁸) of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to match its computational reach in classical terms.

“This is the next frontier in quantum computing,” said IBM CEO Arvind Krishna. “Our deep expertise in physics, engineering, and mathematics is converging to build a machine that can address real-world problems and transform industries.”

At the core of this endeavor is fault tolerance—a critical milestone for quantum systems. Unlike conventional bits, which represent either a 0 or a 1, qubits harness the quantum property of superposition, allowing them to exist in multiple states at once. 

However, they’re highly error-prone. To overcome this, IBM plans to group thousands of physical qubits into logical qubits, which can detect and correct errors during computation. 

The result is a more stable and scalable system, capable of tackling problems that classical computers can’t handle.

Experts say IBM’s roadmap is bold but credible. Luke Yang, equity analyst at Morningstar Research, noted that while the specific technical metrics might evolve over time, the 2029 target is “reasonable.” He highlighted IBM’s consistent delivery on past quantum milestones as a sign of its seriousness and capability.

Enrique Solano, co-CEO of quantum algorithm firm Kipu Quantum, also expressed confidence, saying that IBM’s track record and technical clarity warrant attention. “It may fail, as hardware engineering is unpredictable, but their approach is solid and promising,” he said.

John Young, COO of Quantum eMotion, acknowledged the difficulty of achieving “fault-tolerant” systems at an industrial level, but emphasized that IBM’s substantial investments—totaling $30 billion over five years—and steady progress make the goal technically feasible.

The major technical challenge lies in quantum error correction. Each logical qubit may require thousands of physical qubits to function reliably. This creates massive demands on both hardware and software engineering. Yet IBM is confident that by optimizing error correction and circuit execution, it can minimize the number of physical qubits needed to achieve fault tolerance at scale.

For now, IBM’s plan stands out as one of the most concrete roadmaps toward a practical quantum future. Industry experts agree: it’s no longer just a research ambition—it’s an engineering race. And IBM is staking its claim at the front of the field.