Raw sugar output to rise in 2025

Philippine  raw sugar output in 2025 is expected to reach 1.85 million metric tons (MMT) with the improved weather conditions that would  allow the expansion in harvest area, according to the report of the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service Manila.

The forecast is higher than the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s projected output of 1.78 MMT for the current crop year which kicked off on September 1, reported Business Mirror.

“Improvement in weather conditions from the previous El Niño is expected to provide better production in MY 2025,” the USDA-FAS Manila said in its latest report. 

It also estimated  2025 sugarcane area at 389,500 hectares (ha) due to an increase in area planted, particularly in Mindanao.

“The loss of area in Luzon due to land conversion to residential and commercial purposes will only partly offset area expansion in Mindanao,” the report read. 

“The prevailing high prices will continue to encourage farmers to plant sugarcane instead of shifting to other crops like corn, cassava, and banana,” it added, noting that about 85 percent of sugarcane areas are small farms.

Last month, the SRA issued Sugar Order (SO) 1 which indicated that raw sugar output in crop year (CY) 2024-2025 will drop by 7.29 percent to 1.78 MMT from the previous year’s 1.92 MMT. CY 2024-2025 started last September 1.

“(The projection_ is based on the effect of El Niño on standing crops — those that were planted from October 2023 to May this year,” SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona said. 

“So 1 noted that the production estimate for the current crop year was due to the anticipated negative effect of the prolonged dry spell, “unless the La Niña phenomenon brings about an increase in production.” 

Despite the bleak production outlook for the current crop year, the SRA made an assurance that the Philippines has enough supply of sugar until the second quarter of 2025.

“Based on our estimates, including the actual stock on hand and the imports that will arrive, we will have enough sugar possibly until the end of the milling season in May or June 2025,” said Azcona.

The SRA recently authorized the importation of 240,000 metric tons of refined sugar to beef up domestic supply.

The sugar policy for CY 2024-2025 also mandated the classification of the entire output for the current crop year as “B” or for the domestic market.

Domestic raw sugar withdrawal, according to SO 1, would reach 2.2 MMT.

Meanwhile, the USDA-FAS Manila sees sugar demand for MY 2025, which also began in September, to remain flat at 2.2 MMT. 

“The high prices of sugar and products containing sugar will continue to discourage increases in consumption,” the report read. 

“The high inflation rate affected consumers and focused their spending on basic commodities.”

oods but also in using available water for irrigating farmlands.

“The problem is that there are flood control schemes, but these do not take into consideration the production areas,” explained DA Undersecretary Roger Navarro for operations. He said the DPWH’s role is to ensure that floods reach the sea, while the DA sees to it that farmlands have enough water for crops. 

“Now under our convergence efforts, the DPWH will work on the main canal, while the DA would like to do the peripheral canal. That canal will be used for channeling water to farm areas,” he said.

Navarro said a memorandum of agreement for the convergence efforts will be signed before the year ends since this is “a priority.” 

Among the signatories are the DA, DPWH, NIA, the Department of the Interior and Local Government, and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources. 

As early as  2013, rainwater harvesting was pushed vigorously by the DA andDILG  to augment water in the country, reduce incidents of flooding and improve the water supply especially in upland areas where water scarcity is frequently experienced.

And with severe floods brought by habagat and intense typhoons, the need for trapping and harvesting rainwater in improvised catchment systems, small dams and even drums in schools have become imperative to stretch water supplies during droughts and El Nino episodes, as previously  experienced by the country.