The data in denial

Looking behind the surveys on what the public seeks, faced with the possibility of changes as 2016 comes around, the top concerns serve as desperate pleas, not only those the government must address, but more important, as cries for critical areas left neglected. 

The top two are inflation and wages—each a function of income and affordability. Corruption and rampant criminality are among other concerns, but these two result from poor economic governance. To debunk the data, the government claims inflation was at 0.40-percent, while constantly declaring that 3.8 million jobs were created against joblessness pegged at 3 million. Underemployment, which is 300 percent higher than the number of jobless, is where the issue of wages impacts as these represent those who are underpaid and need additional work to simply subsist.

Against the mantra of the straight path foisted by the administration candidate who assumes that the public wants continuity, the data belied by the recent surveys result in zero sums.

Note the contradictions

Benigno Aquino III’s governance is anchored on an anti-corruption agenda that presupposes such results in poverty eradication. This is parroted by the ruling party’s standard-bearer, thus justifying the employment of massive government resources and billions to perpetuate the status quo, including the assurance that Palace-friendly sitting crooks will, post-2016, remain outside the jails that await them.

Basically the inherent econometrics, not only in the sloganeering that declares that where there is no corruption there is no poverty (Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap) but also in the encompassing spin that anti-corruption brings good governance, and good governance subsequently leads to growth as chorused by Aquino’s economic managers, all focus on two principal variables.

One is the anti-corruption agenda. The other is the eradication of poverty. In between is economic performance that theoretically translates anti-corruption to poverty eradication.

Let us review these

Atop the table where Aquino’s Cabinet occasionally meets, the two floral centerpiece examples decorating Aquino’s anti-corruption fare are the impeachment of a chief justice on one end and, on the other end, a vicious multimillion-peso campaign to deny a presidential protagonist the presidency.

Economic performance, on the other hand, is exemplified by Aquino’s constant crowing of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and his ballyhooed investment-grade ratings.

Analyze the data. In July 2013, GDP growth peaked at 7.9 percent from a steep recession immediately following the administration of Gloria Arroyo. From July 2013, GDP growth again quickly fell to 7.0 percent, to 6.3 percent, to finally settle at 5.6 percent by January 2014.

In economics, two successive periods of GDP declines equate to a recession. While GDP growth rose and fell from 5.6 percent to as low as 5.0 percent between January 2014 and today, it was last recorded at 5.6 percent. Alluding to the straight path (tuwid na daan) imagery, in contrast, GDP growth was a circuitous, looping, manic-depressive rollercoaster ride with its peak as the bragging point and its deep troughs buried under Yolanda’s debris in a hellish hole dug by his people.

There is unanimous agreement among analysts that GDP growth of the last five years under Aquino has not been inclusive, denying as it did the greater number of its benefits, albeit rewarding those who already enjoy its wealth with more wealth. This effectively increases our income disparities measured by the Gini Coefficient as the absence of true inclusive growth worsens inequity—a fact validated by the recent survey of concerns.

On our investment grade of BBB-, the per-capita income of Filipinos remains at a pathetic $2,836, while similarly rated BBB- economies earn $10,552 or nearly 400 percent better.

Even an idiot can see that the survey results validate that GDP growth is illusory and investment grade ratings under the tuwid na daan have little effect on prices, wages and per-capita incomes.

It, however, takes a special kind of idiot to want to perpetuate such injustices.