Who is behind Trillanes?

Barely two weeks before the general elections of 2016, senator and five-star hotel mutineer Antonio Trillanes IV is creating waves by exploding allegations against the frontrunner in the presidential race. 

According to Trillanes, who made a name in that famous Manila Peninsula caper many years ago, Davao City Mayor Digong Duterte has hundreds of millions of pesos in undeclared wealth stashed away at a big bank.

What followed was the snowballing game as to what made Trillanes train his gun on Duterte at this point of the campaign.

The most popular view, it appears, is that Trillanes may have assumed the role of the proverbial “attack dog,” possibly unleashed by a candidate who would benefit from a major nosedive in Duterte’s popularity.

As to who that candidate could be is anybody’s guess—but that candidate is definitely not Trillanes. He is running for vice president. He is not running against Duterte so he would not be the beneficiary of any exodus among those who prefer Duterte to be the country’s next president.

Also, isn’t Trillanes doing his thing too late? The way it looks, Duterte is set to create a lead that may be too difficult to surmount even by his closest rival. It will be recalled that when Trillanes set out to demolish Vice President Jejomar Binay through that infamous Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee probe on alleged anomalies in Makati, the latter’s voter preference ratings hardly slid downwards.

We think the eventual decline in Binay’s ratings have more to do with the emergence of Duterte and his rise as the force to contend with in this presidential race. While the Senate probe may have caused much discomfort to the Binay camp, it appears that probe may have done little to stop voters from backing the vice president’s bid.

Doesn’t Trillanes know that the timing of his attack on Duterte is suspect?

Listening to social media, it appears the common question is, why didn’t Trillanes make this so-called “exposé” much ahead? As it stands, the controversy Trillanes is attempting to whip up may have little or no effect at all on Duterte’s ratings. By this time, most voters—including those who favor Duterte—would have already made up their minds and cemented their choices.

It is even possible that Trillanes’s attack on the Davao City mayor could merely serve to strengthen the commitment of the Duterte faithful to support his presidential bid even more.

We presume Trillanes knows these.

If he does, then his action is, indeed, baffling. Why should Trillanes be doing a task that does not directly benefit him in terms of votes? There is a campaign season going on. Many ask: shouldn’t he be out there getting votes for himself?

Why should he be doing a task that could snatch votes away from Duterte and land them on a rival for the presidency and not for himself?

Ironically, even as news in the traditional media seems to have focused on Trillanes’s allegations against Duterte, much of the speculation is on who is behind Trillanes’s move.

We can only commiserate with him. While there is a possibility he may have noble intentions, the timing and the circumstances of this move can only point to a questionable agenda.

That he is being used by a Duterte rival appears to be the most dominant view.

If this is true, that Duterte rival must be in a major state of panic. Moves made in a state of panic are often wrong.

We foresee a major backlash here—against both Trillanes and whoever the public suspects may be using him to demolish Duterte.

Attacks like this merely serve to underscore the fact that Duterte has become a formidable contender to the presidency and that his win may have become inevitable. This kind of tactic is clearly a “last resort,” a “last-ditch effort.”

The ultimate loser in this game is Trillanes himself.

Regardless of the nobility of his motive or the absence of it, he may have solidified his reputation as the proverbial “attack dog,” Unfair to the senator, but it cannot be helped.

Worse, he can be viewed as a mere “nuisance candidate”–one who is not serious about winning.

We hope Trillanes gets a just reward for taking the risk and the cudgels for that unnamed beneficiary of his move.