Duterte move favors Binay

Contrary to the view of a self-styled “political analyst,” the move by Davao City Mayor Digong Duterte to stay out of the 2016 presidential race primarily favors the bid of Vice President Jejomar Binay.
It hardly favors Sen. Grace Poe. At the same time, it could be fatal to former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas’ fragile candidacy.
Here’s the basis for this column’s position on this issue.
First, one must look at the series of surveys done during the period when research firms started to poll voters on awareness and preference. Those surveys indicated that the “immovable” core of Binay’s loyal supporters is in Mindanao. The Vice President’s political waterloos have not affected that core for a long time.
Second, only Duterte could eat from that pie of loyal Binay core votes. Duterte was the only prominent Mindanaoan on the list of “presidentiables.” He is liked and respected in that region. A determined Duterte bid for the presidency could have eroded that core of loyal Binay support in that region, even slice it by half.
Third, now that Duterte is clearly no longer in the running, that slice of the Binay pie that may have previously moved to the Davao City mayor’s column is sure to return. That slice is not by any means going to Poe or to Roxas.
Conclusion: the first and primary beneficiary of Duterte’s decision not to run is Binay.
Next point: that Duterte decision could be fatal to Mar.
The sad news for the camp of the ex-local government secretary is that Duterte’s media interviews in the aftermath of his “not-running” announcement were laced by the latter’s bitter lament over what he described as underhanded tactics by the Roxas camp.
In a radio interview, Duterte said he would “soon reveal” the name of a presidential aspirant who he believes should never become president. Pressed to name that aspirant, Duterte unequivocally mentioned “Mar Roxas.”
In accusing Roxas of orchestrating a smear campaign against him, Duterte sounded pained and betrayed. This is understandable. He and Roxas are supposed to be “friends.”
That a “friend” should do what he believes Roxas had done to him would definitely be painful.
Roxas has publicly denied he had anything to do with the alleged anti-Duterte smear campaign. The denial may have merely further dented Roxas’s already tattered leadership reputation.
Either he knew about it or he did not. If he knew about it, then he had done a bungled job. If he did not know about it, then he has no control over his propaganda machinery.
If one cannot control such machinery and operation, how can one be expected to run a country?
Two scary possibilities remain.
First, that Duterte will not endorse Roxas’ presidential bid. This means Mindanao may go solidly for Binay, unless Duterte endorses Poe or Miriam.
Second, that Duterte would actually campaign against Roxas in keeping with his publicly announced position that Roxas does not deserve to become president of this country.
We presume Roxas’ communication team allegedly led by Malacañang Spokesman Edwin Lacierda is aware of these frightening possibilities. This may be why Roxas is publicly wooing Duterte.
Unfortunately, the public courtship is merely cementing the many weaknesses of the Roxas candidacy.
Roxas nowadays tends to crack his voice as if he is about to weep during his media interviews on this recent debacle. While that tactic may create the perception that Roxas is “human after all,” it also paints a picture of him as kawawa.
Unfortunately, the public sympathy here is on Duterte’s side. The mayor was the kawawa in the face of that alleged smear campaign that Duterte believes was blessed by Roxas and implemented by a person accountable to the ex-local government secretary.
In fairness to Roxas, many believe he is a man with a clean heart and incapable of doing what Duterte believes he did.
We will not dispute that. Roxas deserves the benefit of the doubt.
The problem is that the manner in which his communication team is handling this mess tends to make the public take that benefit away from him.