Sugar output to plunge to the lowest level 1.662MMT

RAW sugar output for crop year 2026-2027 will plunge to 1.662 million metric tons, its lowest level in over 20 years.

The Sugar Regulatory Administration made this forecast because of plant disease infection called red-striped soft scale insects (RSSI) on sugarcane fields, which is also its “early estimate” for the crop by its research department.

SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona explained “we’re currently basing it on verified areas affected by the RSSI and the potential drop in yield. As of this time, the estimate is at 1.662 MMT,” Azcona told reporters.

If this materializes, the latest production figures will be the lowest level recorded since the 1.619 MMT in crop year 1999-2000.

He said the agency will come up with a mid-milling estimate, with the milling season slated to begin on October 1.

SRA data showed that raw sugar output fell by 11 percent to 1.85 MMT in crop year 2025-2026, from 2.08 MMT in the previous year.

Despite this, Azcona reiterated that the agency is not keen on issuing an import order due to ample stockpiles.

“As of now, we don’t have plans to import. We’re still above our stock level threshold, so we’re safe,” he said.

He said the agency is currently “noncommittal” on the export of raw sugar to the United States in 2027 due to compounding factors that battered the industry, such as weather disturbances and the continued infestation of RSSI.

“Due to the floods that we had in Negros last year, then the dry spell and the RSSI, I’m not sure whether we will export and to what amount as of now,” Azcona said.

“We need to look at the start of milling [season] to confirm if our yield estimates will materialize. So, we’re a bit noncommittal for now,” he added.

The Philippines secured a sugar allocation of 145,235 metric tons raw value (MTRV) for fiscal year 2027, the fourth straight year it has received the same quota under Washington’s import program.

The US Trade Representative (USTR) announced the in-quota allocations under the TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) on imported raw cane sugar for FY 2027, which begins on October 1.

Under the TRQ system, countries are allowed to export specified quantities of a product to the US at a relatively low tariff.