The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
The United States Department of Agriculture raised its forecast of corn imports of the Philippines to cope with the requirement of local hog industry and other users.
The forecast came after reports of an expected 2.8 percent increase in local corm production from 8.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 8.4 MMT.
Likewise, wheat imports of the country next year would reach 7 MMT driven by stronger demand for milling and feed quality wheat.
The Philippines, which was hard hit by El Niño and continues to grapple with fall armyworms, could import 1.3 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024, according to the USDA. The figure is higher than the initial estimate of 1.1 MMT, Business Mirror said.
“Global imports are forecast to rise because of increases for China, India, Mexico, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Venezuela,” the USDA report read.
For next year, the USDA said the Philippines will also import more corn, estimated at 1.35 MMT, due to lower carryover stock.
However, global imports for next year will decline due to the reduced forecasts for Canada, China and Iran.
“Global imports are forecast down as reduced forecasts for Canada, China, and Iran more than offset a raise to the European Union, India, Mexico, and the Philippines.”
“Global wheat consumption is raised this month on increased feed and residual use in the Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, outweighing lower feed and residual use in the European Union,” the report read.
“Global trade is adjusted upward due to increased imports for the Philippines, the European Union, and Vietnam.”
The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila (USDA-FAS Manila) said in its recent report that the country’s corn production in the marketing year (MY) 2024-2025 may decline due to fall armyworms infesting local farms.
“FAS Manila forecasts lower MY 2024/25 corn production as multiple producers and industry contacts report reduced area planted and ongoing issues with Fall Army Worm,” the report read.
The USDA-FAS Manila projected that local corn production in MY 2024-2025 would decline by 2.38 percent to 8.2 MMT from 8.4 MMT in the previous MY.
In June, BusinessMirror reported that fall armyworms devastated corn fields in the Caraga region. The infestation was attributed by a crop protection specialist to temperature changes.
Figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that corn production in April to June fell by 20.3 percent to 1.174 MMT, from last year’s 1.473 MMT.
“The adverse weather condition is the biggest factor behind the decline along with the delay in planting,” PhilMaize President Romualdo Elvira Jr. told the Business Mirror last month.
Figures from the PSA showed that the country’s farm output contracted by 3.3 percent in the second quarter due to the weather phenomenon.
Crop production, which amounted to P220.04 billion, declined annually by 8.6 percent, with the value of corn production posting a 20.3-percent decline.
Despite this, Elvira said the development is not yet alarming. “We will have to wait for the harvest because some farmers planted in July. Maybe in the third quarter we can see the picture and by then we will know the actual situation.” (RDLC)