The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
Blood and gore—never before imagined in even the worst nightmares of modern-day Filipinos—characterized the first 100 days of President Duterte in Malacañang.
In the midst of it all, too, to add to the darkling national scenario, the President, in a move totally unprecedented in the annals of local politics and diplomacy, stood up to its closest ally, the United States, and demanded that it treat the Philippines as a “sovereign nation,” and its citizens as equals, not as “little brown brothers.”
(The President’s move actually was in reaction to an “implied threat”—raised by the US media— that US President Obama would reprimand President Duterte during their scheduled one-on-one at the Asean summit over the conduct of the Philippine President’s bloody war on drugs. We all know now that Mr. Duterte’s outburst against his US counterpart was triggered by a local reporter’s question on how he would react to Obama in the event the US president raised the subject.
We also all know now that Mr. Duterte’s demand that Filipinos be treated by the Americans as “equals” was followed up by his foreign secretary in remarks and interviews in the US and the United Nations, the first time this ever happened, as far as Filipinos are concerned.)
Then, in succeeding muscular speeches liberally spiced with curse words, Mr. Duterte told off other “donor countries,” especially those in the European Union that also expressed alarm and issued warnings over the conduct of his war against illegal drugs, saying in so many words to let him be because he was trying to do what he thought was best to save the country’s future generations from the scourge of illegal drugs, and from the fate that has befallen the citizens of various South American countries that are now almost under the control of narco politicians.
Not all gloom and doom
But it was not all gloom and doom that marked the new President’s “trial period.” Huge strides, never before seen in the first 100 days of previous administrations, were also recorded in the areas of peace and order, economic development and good government—developments that were not lost to the majority of Filipinos, despite the uproar created by various sectors shocked by the suddenness of the changes.
A Social Weather Stations survey gave the new President very high marks, eclipsed only by those of Fidel V. Ramos in his first 100 days as President.
Despite criticisms on the bloody drug war, a recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed eight in 10 Filipinos were satisfied with Mr. Duterte’s anti-drug campaign.
Of 1,200 Filipinos interviewed for the nationwide survey, 84 percent said they are satisfied with the government’s crackdown on illegal drugs against 8 percent dissatisfied, while the rest are undecided.
The results yielded an “excellent” net satisfaction rating of +76. SWS classified ratings over +70 percent as “excellent.”
The survey, however, showed 71 percent of the respondents said it is “very important” for drug suspects to be caught alive.
But many observers said that while drug dependents should be spared, drug dealers and pushers should be totally eliminated, if they don’t surrender. “One drug pusher/dealer left to ply his nefarious trade can destroy a hundred or a thousand lives in just a matter of days,” said a police officer who did not want to be identified. “These people are merchants of death and should be eliminated, if they refuse to give up, period.”
Not unexpected
To be sure, the bloody war against illegal drugs was not unexpected. But judging by the shock and uproar that followed it, Filipinos – and the world at large – were totally unprepared for it.
During Mr. Duterte’s presidential campaign, he gave ample warnings that if he won the presidency, he would wage a bloody war against criminals, notably against illegal drugs. Many could recall how his brash, young vice presidential running mate, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, would repeatedly tell his audience or whoever cared to listen, that he and Mr. Duterte would eradicate crime in the country within six months of their election to the highest posts of the land. “Itaga n’yo yan sa bato!” Cayetano would shout in his speeches, punching the air with his fist for emphasis.
Immune as they had become to the vain promises of politicians every election season, little did the Filipino voters realize that Mr. Duterte’s party meant every word of that campaign promise.
Wasted bodies
So in those first 100 days, there was never a single morning in Metro Manila and elsewhere where the early light did not reveal wasted bodies of suspected drug pushers or addicts, either riddled with bullets or stabbed repeatedly, and dumped on roadsides and garbage heaps or barangay alleys. Some had masking or duct tapes wrapped around their heads to prevent instant recognition, or with cardboards saying they were either drug users or pushers.
It did not take long before incredulous Filipinos and a horrified global community took notice.
Condemnation, particularly from local bleeding hearts and their ardent supporters in the Church and in the vociferous international community of human-rights activists, followed swiftly and started sweeping the country through the local mainstream and social media and various international newspaper and radio and television networks.
Huge changes
Scant attention, if at all, was paid to the huge changes in the crime statistics that resulted from the war against illegal drugs. In Quezon City, statistics showed that the crime rate went down by 45 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2016. All over the country, particularly in Metro Manila, the volume of crime in all categories – from petty thefts and burglaries and snatchings and muggings to homicides – was noted to have gone down drastically. It was this that most Filipinos saw and prompted them to give Mr. Duterte the best maiden ratings for a Philippine president, second only by a few points to former President Fidel V. Ramos who Mr. Duterte acknowledges to have been among those to pushed him to seek the presidency.
The third quarter 2016 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, conducted from Sept. 24-27 among 1,200 respondents nationwide, showed a net 65-percent public-satisfaction rating on Mr. Duterte as a result of 76 percent of the respondents expressing satisfaction against 11 percent indicating dissatisfaction.
The President’s rating in his first three months in office was second highest behind former President FVR’s net 66 percent rating. Former President Joseph Estrada received a net 60 percent; former President Gloria Arroyo, a net 24 percent; and former President Benigno S. Aquino III, a net 60 percent in their maiden SWS surveys.
“The survey results reflect the continuing public’s confidence in his campaign against drugs, criminality, terrorism, and corruption,” said Communications Secretary Martin Andanar said, in welcoming the results of the survey.
Businessman Peter Wallace, founder of the think tank Walla Business Forum, said the accomplishments of Mr. Duterte in just 100 days of his administration were impressive.
”We’ve had almost 100 days now and we’ve had things done. I’m quite amazed really how many things have been accomplished,” Wallace said.
He commended the President Duterte for signing an executive order on the implementation of Freedom of Information (FOI) within the Executive branch.
”But I think the one that struck us all immediately was, after what? Five presidents, 25 years, we didn’t have a Freedom of Information Act. Within six days, we had one. Just like that.
He did the sensible thing. He passed an Executive order,” Wallace said.
The Wallace Business Forum provides advisory services to chief executive officers (CEOs) and helps foreign firms understand the business environment in the Philippines.
Wallace said he was confident Congress would pass the FOI bill that will cover all branches of government.
”I’ve no doubt, given the majority he has in both Houses, that (the) law will be passed,” he said.
He also praised the President for appointing Cabinet secretaries who are economic and business experts.
”His economic cluster is a very well-chosen cluster of people who are former businessmen and academics who know their job and know what has to be done. And he has said on numerous occasions, he will rely on them and their guidance as to where to go,” Wallace said.
He said the business community has essentially agreed with the 10-point socioeconomic agenda of the President.
Wallace, whose Philippine citizenship was approved only recently by Congress, called Mr. Duterte’s decision to continue the good policies of the previous administration a “remarkable” change.
“(Before,) each government wanted to just to throw out the baby with the bathwater and start all over again.” He said, “Continuity is important. We continue with those things that are good and we’ speed them up.’”
He also praised the Duterte administration for promising to come up with 17 public-private partnership (PPP) projects before the end of the year.
Wallace said the target to increase the allotted budget for infrastructure spending from 2.5 percent to 5 percent was also commendable, saying the lack of infrastructure “is one of the greatest weaknesses today.”
He expressed hope that Congress would act immediately on the emergency powers that the President has sought to “quickly and drastically” solve the traffic woes, particularly in Metro Manila.
The Filipino people should understand and accept the President’s way of implementing the change he promised in the last elections, he said.
”He promised change, and we wanted change, so the people voted for him, and he won overwhelmingly, promising that change. And now people are complaining that he’s changed, that he’s different. And yet that’s what we wanted,” Wallace said. “I’ve been studying this man for quite some time now. I’ve known him for quite some time. And I know that the way he talks is not the way he thinks. This is a man who genuinely cares for this country and genuinely cares for its people.”
Mr. Duterte has been heavily criticized, not only in the Philippines but also abroad, particularly by the United Nations, the United States and European Union for his war on drugs.
”And so he’s angry and frustrated and he takes this out by swearing, which is not terribly abnormal in the society that he is mixed in. But it is difficult particularly for foreigners to understand,” Wallace said. “What happens, unfortunately, is that too often, what he says is taken literally, rather than interpreting what he actually meant.”
Exceptional
Former National Security Adviser Jose Almonte said the first 100 days of Mr. Duterte was “exceptional,” particularly in his achievements on addressing the problems of insurgency, politics and monopolized business.
Almonte served as director general of the National Security Council (NSC) under former President Ramos, who is now Mr. Duterte’s special envoy to China on the maritime dispute at the South China Sea.
Almonte said the Philippines has been suffering from an “internal war” since 1946 and he commended Mr. Duterte’s move to declare an indefinite ceasefire to give way to the peace process with the Communist Party of the Philippines.
Almonte also noticed Mr. Duterte’s unconventional approach when he appointed known leftists to his Cabinet.
”This is the longest communist insurgency in the world. And we are, at the same time, having a problem of a separatist movement in the South. So that’s No.1. No. 2 is our broken politics,” Almonte said.
Almonte said the President’s call for Congress to start immediately the discussion on the possible shift of government from the presidential system to federalism would fix the “broken politics” in the country.
”The problem is this— only a small group, a special group, in general, formulates the policies, national policies of this government and it is implemented for its interests. And this happens, as you know, every after election. As we know, the center of political power, where we are in this country, is in the hands of this small group that funded the election,” he said.
Almonte also praised the President for trying to break the “unholy alliance” between politics and business.
”If we cannot solve these three basic problems, we can never build a Filipino nation the way we want it to be. So these three must be solved and President Duterte is confronting it. That’s the best for the nation,” he said.
Almonte also said that if the President could solve these three basic problems, other concerns like corruption, inequality and poverty would also be addressed in the future.
”It just so happened that what he’s doing is what I thought before. And that is why I am here to talk to you. I was asked. And the reason is I believe that he is doing the right thing on this,” he said.
However, Almonte expressed apprehension that addressing his three basic concerns would be derailed if the nation’s attention continues to focus on the extrajudicial killings and Mr. Duterte’s colorful language.
”My fear (is that) the three fundamental things that the President would like to address may be jeopardized because of these things that I have mentioned earlier,” he said.
With regard to the foreign policy that the President wants to pursue, Almonte suggested that it should be a policy that would make the Philippines a friend of all nations, including its old ally, the United States.
”The best foreign policy is, let’s maintain our friendship with our old allies. But at the same time, let us work very hard to become friends of others, even if they are enemies of our allies,” he said.
In his previous statements, the President said he “might” break up with the US and that he would rather go with Russia and China.
”We maintain our relationship with America. But at the same time, let us befriend all the others, including China,” he said.
Almonte advised President Duterte to make his colorful language “colorless.”
”I hope he will change when the time comes. By the way, I hope the President does not take it against me. I have not met him. So I do not know him personally,” Almonte said.
Volume of investments
Meanwhile, the volume of investments in the country continues to improve. The Board of Investments (BOI) last month approved P51 billion worth of investment projects, surging 200 percent from P17 billion worth of pledges in the same period in 2015.
BOI Managing Head Ceferino Rodolfo said that from January to September, projects registered under the investment promotion agency amounted to P286 billion or 49 percent higher than the figure in the same period last year.
“What we’re seeing in the real sector that relies on fundamentals of the economy, is that growth is being sustained or even accelerated,” said Rodolfo who is also trade undersecretary.
The official is likewise optimistic that the country will hit its gross domestic product GDP) growth target of up to 7.0 percent at end-2016, supported by growing investment approvals.
Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said investment approvals of the BOI for the full year of 2016 were projected to grow at 10 percent to 15 percent.
Lopez also cited the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, attracting investors to put up and expand their businesses in the Philippines.
“Investors who come here look at the long term fundamentals—fast-growing consumer spending, fast-growing economy, and other positive factors that make one want to invest here,” the trade chief said.
He added that investors have nothing to worry about in the Philippines despite the change in administration.
Lopez stressed that the first economic agenda of the Duterte administration is to maintain the good macroeconomic policies of the previous administration.
Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi also told a business delegation from the European Union (EU) and the European Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines (ECP) that the Duterte administration has made headways in its first 100 days in solving peace and order issues.
“And what an exciting chapter is opened this year, indeed! Among other things, a new administration is in place and is making headway in its first 100 days. With its emphasis on curbing drugs, criminality and corruption, the administration is making good its promise to improve the peace and order situation in the country, which, of course, is necessary to a healthy and conducive business and investment climate,” Cusi said.
“In his first State of the Nation Address, President Duterte firmly declared that with our vigorous pursuit of industrialization and economic development, we will be expecting an increase in the demand of power supply. As such, we are now in the process of reviewing our fuel and capacity mix policy to really ensure the right level of diversification and balance in our existing energy resources, to avoid overdependence on any one fuel source, “ Cusi said.
Colorful way of speaking
Meanwhile, Jose Antonio Goitia, PDP Laban Policy Studies Group head and chairman of the PDP Laban Membership Committee of the National Capital Region, said Mr. Duterte’s manner of speaking should be understood, as he noted that the media appear to be always quoting him out of context.
“The President’s colorful language is being sensationalized in various media, discarding the context and, thus, missing entirely his point,” Goitia said.
He cited the international media’s reaction to the President’s statement referring to the Holocaust. He said this was “understandable” because the Holocaust remains a sensitive issue to Europeans and the Jewish community.
Despite the years, the West has never really recovered from what it now considered as the modern world’s worst social catastrophe when Hitler exterminated 6 million innocent Jews.
But Goitia urged those reacting to the President’s “Hitler statement” to first listen the entirety of the speech from which the sound bite was taken.
The President was, in fact, reacting to the US and the European Union’s vilification of him and their condemnation of the so-called drug-related extrajudicial killings in the Philippines. Taking the entirety of his speech into context, what he actually meant was that he cares more for the nation’s interest and welfare than his reputation in the international community.
Goitia said the more discerning public would see the stark difference between the President’s war on drugs and Hitler’s Holocaust. The 6 million Jews detained in concentration camps and killed in gas chambers were innocent, while those being pursued by the PNP’s Oplan Tokhang are hardened misfits of society preying on hapless citizens, he said.
The drug menace has also corrupted elected officials, infested the ranks of the police force, and made a mockery of the justice system. Indeed, the drug menace is posing a real threat to Philippine society.
With his twisted concept of the perfect Aryan race, Hitler’s persecution of Jews was an extreme form of racism.
The war on drugs, on the other hand, is a campaign against criminality that is plaguing the Philippine society. Hitler was a deranged lunatic who mercilessly ordered the purging of innocent civilians.
The same cannot be said of the President, as his anti-criminality campaign is in fact benefitting most Filipinos. There are now tangible signs that crime is on the downtrend and the streets are much safer, Goitia said.
“President Duterte has been consistently appealing to the international community to let him do his job of protecting the Filipinos who are being victimized by criminality and the drug menace. His critics, however, continuously portray him as a murderous monster, which is far from who really is.
He has said before that if in his performance of his sworn duty to protect the Filipino people he should lose the presidency, then so be it. The President recognizes that his vilification in the international community is the price to pay to serve his nation.
His willingness to sacrifice his reputation makes him far more honorable than the people who are criticizing his methods but have not done anything to solve the scourge of the drug menace,” Goitia said. With a report from Riza Lozada