The Market Monitor Minding the Nation's Business
The country’s sugar production might suffer a setback if Mt. Kanlaon’s projected eruption materializes and lahar flows from the active volcano.
This as the Sugar Regulatory Administration said it is on alert due to possible lahar flows which could threaten sugar plantations near the restive Kanlaon Volcano, Business Mirror reported.
The volcano, which recently spewed ash, has been under close watch after it exhibited increasing unrest since last week. Kanlaon straddles the provinces of Negros Oriental and Negros Occidental—the country’s top sugar producer.
SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona said the fields in its research station La Granja Agricultural Research and Extension Center (LGAREC) in Negros Occidental were clear of ash owing to heavy rainfall.
“There is little to no sulfur smell as well. We believe this is due to the rainfall which prevented the ash from spreading,” Azcona told the BusinessMirror.
Still, the SRA chief said heavy rains brought by tropical storm Bebinca prompted the agency to remain vigilant due to the possibility of lahar—the volcanic mudflow spurred by incessant rains.
“The LGAREC station saw very minimal ashfall but because of the heavy rainfall, we are wary of the lahar flows.”
Despite this, Azcona is assuring that his agency is prepared to deal with the lahar flows.
“We are monitoring Kanlaon’s activities so we can inform our farmers in case there is a need to evacuate; we are assisting the local government,” he said. “In case LGAREC will be considered as part of the safe zone, plans are in place to use the facility as shelter for affected farmers.”
The SRA said the volcanic ash from Mt. Kanlaon’s eruption last June increased acidity in sugarcane leaves and ground soil in affected areas.
About 23,000 hectares in four sugar mill districts might have been affected by the volcanic eruption, SRA said.
The agency noted the pH level which would indicate the level of acidity revealed a 4.14 pH on sugar cane leaves and 5.06 pH in the soil the morning after the ash fall.
This showed acidity as compared to the 6.48 pH from the ground testing last week.
“With the current results after the ash fall, if this will not be washed out by rains, we will need soil rejuvenation in affected sugar lands to bring it back to the ideal state and that is long term,” Azcona said in a statement.
In May this year, SRA projected sugar output for crop year 2023-2024 to reach 1.86 million metric tons (MMT) but millers projected higher than this at 1.79 MMT, up by 3.5 percent, thereby reducing the uncertainty in sugar supply.
“The government’s decision to move the harvest cycle to Sept. 1 from last year’s August to improve yields has proven its worth, and we will continue to push for the original Oct. 1 start of milling, to further improve our cane quality,” SRA Administrator Azcona told Business World.
The regulator had projected raw sugar production of 1.85 million MT, with a possible 10-15% decline depending on the severity of El Niño. He said area planted rose by 3,000 hectares amid a rise in farmgate prices for sugarcane, thereby encouraging farmers to plant the crop.
The government had earlier allocated P5 billion to directly purchase domestic sugar to arrest the drop in farmgate prices.
Early this month, though, the Manila Times said SRA is projectingh a drop in crop year 2024-2025 because of El Nino’s impact or to 1.782 MMT from the previous crop year’s 1.922 MMT. Total domestic raw sugar withdrawal is estimated at 2.20 million MT.
To address the shortfall in supply, the SRA has mandated that all sugar produced will be allocated solely for local consumption, with 100 percent of production designated as “B” or domestic market sugar. Whereas earlier, it pronounced that the country would ship its raw sugar quota requirement to the US.
The SRA also assured the country’s current sugar supply is sufficient until the end of the milling season in May or June 2025.