The political math of impeachment

Beyond the Vice President’s impeachment trial and the massive flooding in Metro Manila and neighboring provinces, another political drama is unfolding quietly at the Office of the Ombudsman. Its next moves could have consequences far beyond the corruption investigations earlier making headlines.

The Ombudsman said that more senators are facing criminal investigations following the arrests of Senators Rodante Marcoleta and Jinggoy Estrada. Yet there has been little public word on the fate of Senators Loren Legarda, Alan Peter Cayetano, sister Pia Cayetano and Joel Villanueva, who face investigations for different reasons.

This raises an uncomfortable question about the impeachment trial: What happens to the required numbers if more minority senators are removed from the equation?

Under the Constitution, conviction in an impeachment trial requires the concurrence of two-thirds of all members of the Senate. With 24 senators, that means 16 votes. But if five minority senators were effectively prevented from participating, expecting 16 votes for conviction would become mathematically unrealistic. The issue is therefore not merely political. It is constitutional and procedural.

The government’s campaign against corruption at the highest levels is losing its initial momentum. Arrests and investigations may demonstrate resolve, but selective or seemingly politically consequential prosecutions could eventually raise questions about whether the campaign is principally about accountability—or about shaping the political landscape before 2028.

That election is the larger shadow hanging over today’s events.

Preventing Vice President Sara Duterte from reaching Malacañang may be an unstated objective of many of those now aligned against her. But if she survives impeachment and wins the presidency in 2028, the political consequences could be enormous. Her administration could be expected to pursue those responsible for her political and personal battles, beginning with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and those around him.

That possibility explains the growing interest in former Vice President Leni Robredo. Some within the administration’s orbit reportedly hope she will heed calls to run against Sara. Yet such an alliance carries an obvious contradiction: Robredo would effectively be receiving an endorsement from the same Marcos camp that her political supporters have long regarded as an adversary.

Philippine politics has always produced unlikely alliances. But an alliance born primarily from fear of another candidate risks becoming another exercise in political arithmetic rather than a genuine choice about the country’s future.

Ultimately, elections should not be reduced to eliminating enemies or preserving political dynasties. The public deserves candidates who stand on their own records, programs and principles—not merely on the opposition they represent.